“Aunque la renta variable se mueve en terreno inestable, se advierte un contrapunto prometedor en la

La renta variable se apreció la semana pasada, al beneficiarse de las fusiones y adquisiciones, y de la reciente caída de los tipos de interés, una tendencia que continuó la semana pasada. La apreciación que hemos visto durante las últimas semanas en la renta variable, la deuda corporativa e incluso en los mercados emergentes no se ha visto impulsada por indicios de recuperación económica, el aumento de inflación ni por el incremento de los beneficios empresariales. Por el contrario, los inversores vuelven a refugiarse en los bajos tipos de interés y en las condiciones monetarias favorables que probablemente se mantendrán durante el resto del año. Pero esto solo puede llevar el mercado hasta cierto punto. Entretanto, está surgiendo otra tendencia importante: para los inversores que buscan un contrapunto a largo plazo en de sus carteras, en concreto en carteras centradas en renta variable, los bonos de duraciones más largas están reafirmando su papel como instrumento eficaz para cubrir el riesgo de renta variable

WEEKLY INVESTMENT COMMENTARY Russ Koesterich Managing Director and BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, as well as Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was previously Global Head of Investment Strategy for active equities and a senior portfolio manager in the U.S. Market Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2005, he was Chief North American Strategist for State Street Bank. It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information. SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY?® For investors looking for some longer-term ballast in their portfolios, particularly equity-centric portfolios, longer-duration bonds are reasserting their role as an effective hedge to equity risk. Stocks Advance, But on Wobbly Trends Stocks advanced last week, with the biggest gains in Asia. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77% to 17,215, the S&P 500 Index grew 0.94% to 2,033 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.16% to close the week at 4,886. Equities continue to benefit from an active cycle of mergers and acquisitions. Last week’s list included Dell’s plans to buy hardware maker EMC and AB InBev raising its bid for SAB Miller. Stocks are also benefiting from the recent drop in interest rates, a trend that continued last week: The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 2.09% to 2.03%, and at one point dipped below 2%. German, Italian and Australian yields also dropped last week, as bond prices rose. Recent weeks have seen stocks, credit and even emerging markets start to recover. Unfortunately, the gains have not been driven by signs of economic improvement, firming inflation or rising earnings. Instead, investors are once again taking solace in low rates and benign monetary conditions, which can and probably will persist for the remainder of the year. But that can only take the market so far. Meanwhile, another important trend is emerging: For investors looking for some longer-term ballast in their portfolios, particularly equity-centric portfolios, longer-duration bonds are reasserting their role as an effective hedge to equity risk. Sugar High In most countries, interest rates are being held down by persistently low inflation. For example, the latest readings on Chinese inflation came in below expectations while U.K. readings turned negative for only the second time since 1960. Even in the U.S., producer prices are falling at the fastest pace since 2009. As realized inflation has remained stubbornly low, inflation expectations have also been stuck. For example, U.S. five-year inflation expectations fell to around 1.15%, down from 1.25% the previous week. With inflation expectations still falling, a 2015 rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks increasingly unlikely; even the odds of an early 2016 hike appear to be fading. This has all helped keep bond yields low. But with bonds providing little appeal and short-term rates fast approaching their ninth calendar year at zero, investors are once again relying on stocks to do the heavy lifting in their portfolios. But this comes with the cost of escalating valuations: Since Sept. 30, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has risen by 10%. We think stocks can rise further this year, but in the absence of earnings growth, U.S. stocks are at best stuck and at worst vulnerable to any unexpected growth shock. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Oct. 19, 2015, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. ©2015 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA. Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee 5449A-MC-1015 / USR–7497 That said, while stocks have managed to rebound from their lows, the S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 are all down year-to-date. The major culprit has been disappointing company earnings, a trend evident in the admittedly still early third quarter earnings season. Last week, the biggest disappointment came from industry bellwether Walmart. The company issued a profit warning, blaming higher wages. The stock promptly fell by more than 10%, its largest one-day loss since 1988. The negative reaction reflects a broader anxiety: With revenue growth sluggish, should U.S. margins start to descend from their lofty highs, earnings growth will be even tougher to come by. The hard truth is that although rising valuations can continue a while longer, particularly if the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan add to their own quantitative easing programs, valuations, particularly for U.S. equities, are already on the wrong side of high. At roughly 18 times trailing earnings, multiples are now back to the same level where the market peaked this summer. We think stocks can rise further this year, but in the absence of earnings growth, U.S. stocks are at best stuck and at worst vulnerable to any unexpected growth shock. The Return of a Hedge This leaves investors either exiting (and potentially missing out on gains) or trying to time the market. But a third possibility exists: Rather than time the market, consider the right hedge. While we don’t see much value in long-dated bonds, in recent weeks they have reasserted their historic role as an equity hedge. Indeed, the 90-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury is once again significantly negative. As investor fears have gravitated back to the economy, and away from an unfounded fear of the Fed, it is likely that the correlation will stay negative for the foreseeable future. The implication is that long-term bonds, which may not offer much income, can help provide an effective hedge in equity-heavy portfolios.