Bank of America Merrill Lynch, encuesta de gestores de fondos de octubre

Redacción - Martes, 18 de Octubre

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Highlights include:

·         Cash levels jumped from 5.5% in September to 5.8% this month. Investors’ average cash balance was last this high in July 2016 (post-Brexit vote) and in Fall 2001. 

·         Investors identify fears of an EU breakup, a bond crash and a Republican winning the White House as the most commonly-cited tail risks.

·         With inflation expectations at a 16-month high and perceptions of developed market equity and bond valuations at record highs, investors are no longer underweight in commodities for the first time since December 2012. 

·         Rotation out of healthcare/pharma, REITs and bonds, into banks, insurance, equities, commodities and EM.

·         Investors cite Long high-quality stocks, Long US/EU IG corporate bonds and minimum volatility strategies as the most crowded trades.

·         Allocation to EM equities rises to the highest overweight in 3.5 years, from 24% last month to 31% in October.

·         Allocation to U.S. and Eurozone equities is unchanged from last month, while allocation to UK equities falls to net 27% underweight from net 24%.

·         Allocation to Japanese equities improves modestly to net 3% underweight from net 8% underweight last month.

 

“This month’s cash levels indicate that investors are bearish, with fears of an EU breakup, a bond crash and Republicans winning the White House jangling nerves,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist.

 

Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist, added that, “Although investors see an EU-disintegration as a big tail risk, European fund managers surveyed are more optimistic about the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone and expect stronger inflation.” 

 

    

For more information, clink on the links below to read the full research reports.

Global Fund Manager Survey: Cats on a Hot Tin Roof •   Investors bearish: cash jumped to 5.8% (same as post-Brexit & 9/11 highs) = contrarian bullish •   Stagflation fear highest since Apr'13 = rising allocations to commodities & EM = rotation from ZIRP winners •   Lower cash awaits political trust/certainty, "good" rise in yields + EPS upswing

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European Fund Manager Survey: Consensus fears correction •   Global risk-aversion grows; allocation to EU equities below historical average and presents a contrarian long opportunity •   European fund managers are less downbeat on Eurozone macro conditions, with economic/profit/inflation outlook improving •   FMS contrarians would book profits in Industrials and Tech while increasing exposure to Banks and Utilities

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Japan Strategy Fund Manager Survey: Bank and real estate allocations fell and insurance allocation rose after Sep BoJ •   Global investors are net underweight Japan equities (-3%) but less so than in Sep. Concern over profit condition remains •   Japan equity investors reduced allocations in banks and real estate, but increased allocation in insurance •   Japan equity investors see better growth and inflation and BoJ policy as less restrictive. BoJ avoided total disappointment

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