BLACKROCK / Comentario de Scott Thiel sobre la reunión del BCE

Global fixed income markets have experienced heightened levels of volatility since the European Central Bank (ECB)’s meeting in mid-April.
In our opinion, the recent increase in the price of oil acted as a catalyst for these moves. The reversal in the oil price prompted an unwind of some crowded positions in fixed income markets that, along with low government bond yields and dampened volatility, are one of the consequences of the extraordinarily loose monetary policies pursued by major developed economy central banks.
With the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) commencing interest rate normalisation, we expect further volatility as markets start to focus on the large imbalances that built up as a consequence of these monetary policy stances. This sentiment of higher volatility was also expressed today by ECB President Draghi.
We retain our thesis that we will see increasing monetary policy divergence as the year progresses. Thus far, most central bank action in 2015 has been on the loosening side but our base scenario remains that the Fed and Bank of England, which had both previously pursued QE programmes, will tighten their monetary policy stances this year. On the other hand, we expect the ECB and Bank of Japan to maintain their asset purchase programmes.

These views are reflected in our positive view of the US dollar versus the Japanese yen and the euro, as well as negative duration positions in UK gilts and the front end of the US treasury curve. We are also short the euro versus the Norwegian krone and in Japan we are positioned with a Japanese government bond curve flattener.
The Governing Council of the ECB did not make any changes today to the main refi rate, which remains at 0.05%. Draghi reiterated their commitment to the QE programme and sought to quash speculation that it might end before September 2016. Indeed, he remarked that the Council have not discussed an exit strategy and that they could even add to their policy stance.
Draghi went to extra lengths to strike a dovish tone in the face of stronger recent growth and signs of a bottoming in inflation. Data released this week for eurozone annual HICP inflation showed an increase to 0.3% in May[1], above consensus expectations and causing a rise in German Bund yields[2]. Despite an acceleration in core inflation and confirmation that trend inflation has troughed, the ECB did not revise higher their medium-term inflation forecasts.
Apart from comments on the improving inflation profile, Draghi also made some interesting comments on the impact of slowing emerging markets growth and volatility in markets.
Given the amount of market and media attention focused on Greece in recent weeks, it was no surprise to see this reflected in the Q&A. Draghi noted that negotiations are in ‘a state of flux’ and that a deal needs to include growth measures and ‘social fairness’, a nod towards the concerns voiced by Greek Prime Minister Tsipras. He also remarked that a deal with Greece needs to address debt sustainability and that the ECB would consider raising the treasury bill ceiling for Greece, which could be key to proving significant extra funding.
In Europe we continue to favour positions in subordinated corporate debt, which we have increased in recent weeks, as well as peripheral sovereign debt in Portugal and Slovenia.
Finally, we remain long Australian government bonds and short the Australian dollar as the demand for commodities and commodity prices remain weak and we do not think that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing cycle is over.

  1.Source: Eurostat 2nd June 2015
  2.Source: Bloomberg 3rd June 2015