BofAML _ Enero: perspectivas divisas, tipos y materias primas

Redacción - Martes, 10 de Enero

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World at a Glance: January: the new administration
•   Our core macro forecasts remain unchanged this month, as markets look towards the incoming administration of Donald Trump.
•   We continue to look for a higher USD, including EUR-USD at 1.02 by mid-2017, and USD-CNY at 7.25 at the end of the year.
•   Our baseline US10yr rate target for end-2017 remains 2.65% , although we do have smaller forecast changes outside the US.

Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities

The prospects of shifting policies under the incoming Trump Administration continue to drive market sentiment. Since our year-ahead piece, our macro forecasts generally remain the same, including our key baseline FX, rates and commodities targets.

G10 FX: no changes

We do not make any changes to our G10 FX forecasts, as we continue to expect a moderately higher USD, including targets for EUR-USD to fall to 1.02 in the middle of 2017, and USD-JPY to end the year at 120.

EM FX: major forecasts also unchanged

We also do not have any forecast changes in our major EM currency outlooks. We still look for USD-CNY to end 2017 at 7.25, rising to 7.35 into 2018, and in general maintain a robust USD-higher outlook against EM.

Interest rates: small adjustments outside of US

Our targets for US yields remain the same, including our expectation for the US10yr rate to finish 2017 at 2.65%. However, we do make adjustments in our yield targets elsewhere, such as with Germany.

Commodities: unchanged

We also keep our outlook for commodities the same as from our last monthly, highlighted by our expectation that oil prices will continue to modestly recover, averaging roughly around the $60/bbl level in 2017.

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