BofAML Europe Economic Weekly: Inflation low, Scotland no
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research - Lunes, 22 de Septiembre
The weekly view: Some risks off the table, some return This week we saw mixed developments, with EA inflation revised upward and the Scottish referendum resulting in a victory for the "No" campaign. But we think there are still many risks ahead that could complicate the outlook for the next quarters.
Euro area: hope springs eternal ‒ the risk of deflation
Inflation remains low and stable globally, with continued downside risks in Europe.
UK: Scotland votes "No" to independence
Scotland voted against independence: the market's focus now likely turns back to the timing of the first BoE rate rise.
Peripheral watch: Greece: Event risk ahead
Political risks are likely to increase in the months ahead. The presidential election in early February is likely to trigger national elections that would lead to a government led by the populist left-wing opposition party, Syriza, according to current opinion polls.
Hot topic: Catalonia in the spotlight again
We do not think the result of the Scottish vote will have more than a marginal impact on the push for secession in Catalonia, mainly because that push never faded. We do not see this as a short-run issue but as something that will be dealt in the future.
The week ahead:
We expect the Euro Area Composite PMI to decrease marginally to 52.0, with the German and French counterparts easing to 55.1 and 49.2.
|
Date |
GMT |
Country |
Data/Event |
For |
BofAML |
Cons.† |
Previous |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
07:45 |
France |
GDP (qoq, F) |
2Q |
0.0% |
-- |
0.0% |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
07:45 |
France |
GDP ( yoy, F) |
2Q |
0.1% |
-- |
0.1% |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:00 |
France |
Manufacturing PMI (P) |
Sep |
46.8 |
-- |
46.9 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:00 |
France |
Services PMI (P) |
Sep |
49.9 |
-- |
50.3 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:00 |
France |
Composite PMI (P) |
Sep |
49.2 |
-- |
49.5 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:30 |
Germany |
Manufacturing PMI (P) |
Sep |
51.1 |
-- |
51.4 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:30 |
Germany |
Services PMI (P) |
Sep |
54.1 |
-- |
54.9 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
08:30 |
Germany |
Composite PMI (P) |
Sep |
53.1 |
-- |
53.7 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
09:00 |
Euro area |
Manufacturing PMI (P) |
Sep |
50.3 |
-- |
50.7 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
09:00 |
Euro area |
Services PMI (P) |
Sep |
52.5 |
-- |
53.1 |
|
|||
|
23 Sep |
09:00 |
Euro area |
Composite PMI (P) |
Sep |
52.0 |
-- |
52.5 |
|
|||
|
24 Sep |
09:00 |
Germany |
IFO Business Climate |
Sep |
105.8 |
-- |
106.3 |
|
|||
|
25 Sep |
09:00 |
Euro area |
M3 Money Supply (yoy) |
Aug |
1.7% |
-- |
1.8% |
|
|||
|
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Reuters, Central banks |
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Ratings calendar 26th September |
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|
Country |
Agency |
Stance |
Expectation |
||||||||
|
Austria |
S&P |
Stable |
No change |
||||||||
|
Finland |
Fitch |
Stable |
No change |
||||||||
|
Germany |
DBRS |
Stable |
No change |
||||||||
|
Ireland |
DBRS |
-ve |
No change |
||||||||
Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Please see full report for further details...
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