BofAML Global Economic Weekly: El lado positivo es el sector servicios

Redacción - Viernes, 20 de Noviembre

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Global Economic Weekly: The silver lining is services •  Services account for two-thirds of global GDP, and yet almost all high frequency data releases focus on other components. •  While goods production has weakened in most of the world, service output remains strong. •  Simple Granger causality tests suggest service activity drives activity in other sectors rather than the other way around.

Global: the silver lining is services

Services account for almost two-thirds of global GDP, and yet almost all of the high frequency data releases focus on other parts of the economy. While goods production has weakened in most of the world, service output remains strong. Simple Granger causality tests suggest service activity drives activity in other sectors rather than the other way around.

United States: Summer in the winter

The experts tell us that there is a risk of a strong El Niño this year, which could result in a warm winter, underpinning economic growth. After the last two harsh winters, the seasonal factors will be looking for weak activity, which suggests the seasonal adjustment process could bias the data even higher. However, the "residual seasonality" issue for 1Q GDP growth could provide a negative offset, although the BEA has taken steps to mitigate the downward bias.

Japan: a polarizing world

Japan's international trade data clearly show a polarizing world, with the effects of solid developed nation economies and slowing emerging economies offsetting one another to leave overall trade stagnant. But we believe October data show at least some signs that the deterioration in exports to emerging economies is slowing.

Asia: service and rural sector to boost consumption

Despite weaker aggregate demand momentum, e-com promotions on the Singles' Day delivered an upside surprise on sales growth. It supports our thesis that China is evolving toward a consumption-oriented economy as investment growth slows. The key to promote economic rebalancing lies in service deregulation and urbanization policies, in our view.

Emerging EMEA: SARB acts now to underscore credibility

The SARB hiked the repo rate by 25bp to 6.25% in November, citing concerns over rand weakness and inflation risks. With our prior call for a January hike happening a meeting earlier, we still see the next 25bp hike to 6.50% in May 2016.

Latin America: something is about to change

The elections in Argentina and Venezuela will be the focus in the coming days. Mauricio Macri leads the polls for this Sunday's runoff in Argentina, while current polls in Venezuela indicate a major opposition victory. The rest of LatAm seems trapped in a low growth-high inflation equilibrium, with central banks in Chile, Colombia and Peru about to hike rates again despite the slowdown in activity.

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