BofAML investors geared up for stronger growth and inflation, but still reluctant to slash cash
Redacción - Martes, 17 de EneroHighlights include: · Investor expectations of global growth improve to 2-year highs (net 62% from net 57% in December), while global inflation expectations remain elevated, with the fifth highest reading on record (net 83% from net 84% last month) · The percentage of investors expecting “above-trend” growth and inflation is at a 5.5-year high (17% from 12% in December) · Investors continue to identify Long USD as the most crowded trade (47%), while the highest percentage since April 2003 thinks that the Euro is undervalued (net 13%)
· Big jump in percentage of investors expecting corporate earnings to rise 10% or more in the next 12 months (improved to net -22% from net -47% last month), the most bullish reading since June ‘14
· However, cash levels rose to 5.1% from 4.8% in December, well above the 10-year average of 4.5%
· The three most commonly cited tail risks are trade war/protectionism (29%), US policy error (24%), China FX devaluation (15%)
· In January, investors said they were buying Eurozone, tech, equities and REITs, while selling industrials, EM equities and commodities
· Allocations to Eurozone equities rose sharply to net 17% overweight from net 1% underweight last month
· Allocation to Japanese equities remains unchanged from December at net 21% overweight, but optimism has room to grow
“Ahead of the US presidential inauguration, investors are positioned for stronger growth and inflation, but are not willing to turn fully bullish with China-related risks on the horizon,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist.
Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist, added that, “Fund managers have returned to Europe amid improvement in the macro outlook, but UK remains the most underweighted region.”
“USD/JPY and Japanese stocks have been bought as inflation assets,” noted Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX/equity strategist. “Whether the post-election market trend reaccelerates or unwinds, these two asset classes are likely to be among the most impacted.”
Note: BofAML's January Global Fund Manager Survey was conducted Jan. 6-12; 215 investors with $547bn AUM participated.
|
|
|
[Volver]
- La presión de los rendimientos de los bonos de EE. UU. sigue siendo palpable
- MERCADOS:Es probable que el gasto actual en infraestructura eclipse lo que experimentamos durante el período de reconstrucción posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial en EE.UU. y el resto del mundo
- La tasa de desempleo en EE. UU. subió al 3,9% en abril y la economía añadió 175.000 puestos de trabajo el mes pasado
- “Por cada dólar invertido en combustibles fósiles, se están invirtiendo actualmente $1,7 en energías limpias”
- El crecimiento global se desacelerará a poco más del 3% para 2029, según el FMI
- No hay evidencia empírica de que la participación de mercado de una empresa prediga su rentabilidad
- Goldman Sachs predice un aumento en las recompras de acciones del S&P500; en 2024 y 2025
- MERCADOS:Es probable que el gasto actual en infraestructura eclipse lo que experimentamos durante el período de reconstrucción posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial en EE.UU. y el resto del mundo
- La presión de los rendimientos de los bonos de EE. UU. sigue siendo palpable
- El crecimiento global se desacelerará a poco más del 3% para 2029, según el FMI
- Se espera que cinco de las “7 magníficas” empresas sean las cinco que más contribuyan al crecimiento interanual de las ganancias para el $SPX del primer trimestre de 2024.
- No hay evidencia empírica de que la participación de mercado de una empresa prediga su rentabilidad