BofAML: Las bolsas se apoyan sobre una base más sólida (Global Economic Weekly)

Redacción - Viernes, 26 de Junio

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• Global stock markets have been wobbling on Greek brinkmanship. • Growth is starting to drive Developed Market equities. • We look for global stock markets to largely weather Fed lift-off.

Global: stock markets on sounder footing

Developed world equity markets seem to be riding on a brighter earnings outlook. That does not appear to be the case in EM, however.

United States: see you in September

A dovish June FOMC meeting has some suggesting the Fed will wait until December to hike. By contrast, we think the Fed's "data dependence" means the thresholds for hiking are fairly low. September remains our base case, with December still second most likely.

Europe: is QE failing?

The evolution of ex ante real interest rates calls into question the credibility of QE. If the market this summer remains deaf to the dovish messages from the ECB, it will have to "speak louder", or, if that is not enough, "show them" and act.

Japan: consumption trends from a macro perspective

In the last year, consumption was depressed as the savings rate rebounded sharply reflecting a substantial deterioration in consumer sentiment. However, the aging population and the rise in stocks are likely to start pushing the savings rate downward again and consumption is likely to rebound by as much as disposable income in 2015.

Asia: India - three reasons to expect FPI G-sec limit hike

Reasons for a US$5bn hike in FPI G-sec limits: 1) substantial FPI appetite for G-Secs to play India's falling rate cycle. 2. helps recoup FX reserves. Hot money worries are overdone, in our view, as the RBI is buying the FX leg into FX reserves. 3. Unwilling FPI investment in quasis poses a risk in the event of an EM bond sell-off.

Emerging EMEA: CEE - BoP strength backs FX

CEE strong external positions underpin our view for appreciation bias for currencies once central banks are done with easing. Upside pressure on the HUF is strongest, with impressive current account surplus, while HUF is still lagging fundamentals. EU funds have become an important source of funding, providing CEE a strong cushion against portfolio outflows.

Latin America: Niño fuerte

There is an 85% chance El Niño will continue through the 2015-16 Northern Hemisphere winter. Moreover, the forecaster consensus slightly favors the view that it will be a strong event, of a magnitude not felt since 1987-1988. IMF research finds it usually has a positive effect on LatAm growth (except Peru) and inflation. We do not expect a high impact, but we base our observations on weak El Niño episodes. 

See report (attached) for further information.

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