BofAML: Regreso al mercado alcista (The Flow Show)
Redacción - Sabado, 24 de Octubre
• Equity, bond & commod funds all see inflows for first time since Feb15; ECB & tech EPS lend support to tactical risk rally
• Junk on: largest HY bond inflows in 8 months = "yield trade" back on; European flows booming and more inflows to HEDJ likely
• Nouveau bulls note tactical "buy" signals from our EM Flow Trading Rule & Global Breadth Rule now over
|
Talking Points Back to Bull: for the first time since Feb'15 equity (see full report for footnote), bond and commodity funds all see weekly inflows...tactical risk rally into SPX 2060 resistance supported in past 2 weeks by strong inflows to both equities & HY, and today by ECB & tech EPS. Junk-On: largest HY bond inflows in 8 months ($3.9bn - Chart 1) as H0A0 heads back above its 50dma; lower rate view cemented by ECB QE promise today = "yield trade" tactically back-on; note however EM debt fund could not eke out inflows this week. Nibbling in EM stocks: 2nd straight week of modest inflows ($0.4bn) to EM equity funds; follows massive $51bn outflows over past 3 months. BofAML EM Flow Trading Rule "buy" signal ends: first signaled contrarian "buy" signal on 9/3/15; after +9% EEM rally in 7 weeks, "buy" signal flips to "neutral". European flows booming: inflows in 21 out of past 23 weeks; most popular ETF in 2015 = HEDJ (WisdomTree Europe Hedged - Chart 2); ECB QE promise today likely to boost inflows further. The Healthcare unwind: weekly inflows to Healthcare funds despite rough price-action in sector; but past 8 weeks have seen $3.6bn outflows (Chart 3); unwind very modest given $41bn inflows between Jan'11 to Aug'15 (Chart 4) (unwind = 3.1% of AUM). Quality-off: Govt/Treasury funds record largest outflows in 16 weeks ($1.1bn). Big rally…"buy" signals fading: SPX +10% from recent lows; leaders of risk rally have been resources, cyclicals (industrials/discretionary), junk (HY & EM sovereigns) and gold; laggards oil, US$, healthcare and defensives (telcos/staples). Note BofAML Global Breadth Rule now "neutral" as vast majority equity markets trading >50dma. And while FMS Cash Rule & the Bull & Bear Index reveal high cash & bearish cross-asset sentiment, both turning in less bearish direction. GWIM zeitgeist: BAML private clients have bought equities in each of past 7 weeks, but level of buying waning and risk appetite (risk-on minus risk-off) lowest level in 5 weeks.
|
||||
|
See report (link above) for further information.
|
[Volver]
- “No llenes las alforjas con compras baratas, porque una canasta de cosas baratas a menudo es una mierda”
- MERCADOS:¿Bueno o malo? Los analistas están ahora en tono más optimista y elevando sus previsiones de beneficios para el segundo trimestre, hasta el +9.8%
- Los precios de producción estadounidenses son malos, pero no tanto
- “Por cada dólar invertido en combustibles fósiles, se están invirtiendo actualmente $1,7 en energías limpias”
- Crece el riesgo de crédito de la deuda de los países en desarrollo
- Criteria Caixa y Taqa se preparan para lanzar una OPA a Naturgy a 27 euros
- Criteria Caixa y Taqa se preparan para lanzar una OPA a Naturgy a 27 euros
- Crece el riesgo de crédito de la deuda de los países en desarrollo
- “No llenes las alforjas con compras baratas, porque una canasta de cosas baratas a menudo es una mierda”
- MERCADOS:¿Bueno o malo? Los analistas están ahora en tono más optimista y elevando sus previsiones de beneficios para el segundo trimestre, hasta el +9.8%
- Los precios de los menús de comida rápida han aumentado considerablemente más rápido que la inflación durante la última década
- Los datos de inflación de EEUU mantienen en vilo a los mercados
- La Sepi ya tiene el 8 % de Telefónica