Continúan las salidas pero aparece una oportunidad

En las últimas semanas los inversores se han enfrentado a dos tendencias: ansiedad por el cambio de política de la Reserva Federal y evidencias sobre la desaceleración del crecimiento de la economía global. Aunque el crecimiento global probablemente vaya a permanecer por debajo de los patrones históricos, no se está colapsando. Esto sugiere que los inversores deberían posicionarse para un entorno de crecimiento lento, no una recesión. Esto, a su vez, implica tomar exposición a algunos riesgos en clases de activos que tienen ahora valoraciones atractivas tras las recientes salidas.  Un ejemplo de estas clases de activo que merecen atención es la renta fija americana con calificación high yield.

The Sell-Off Continues, But an Opportunity Appears
o c t o b e r 1 3 , 2 0 1 4
Another Down Week
Stocks and other risky assets continued to sell off last week. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average lost 2.73% to close at 16,544, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.10%
to 1,906 and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.44% to 4,276. Meanwhile,
the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped from 2.44% to 2.28%, as its price
correspondingly rose.
In recent weeks, investors have been contending with two trends: anxiety over
a change in Fed policy and evidence of a slowdown in the global economy. Our
view is that while global growth is likely to remain below historic norms, it is not
collapsing. This is an important distinction because it suggests that investors
should be positioned for a slow-growth environment, not another recession. This,
in turn, implies taking some selective risk in asset classes that have become less
expensive as a result of the sell-off. One example of an asset class that warrants
another look: U.S. high yield bonds.
Solid Growth in the U.S., Too Little Elsewhere
Last week witnessed further selling of risky assets. Global equities are now
down roughly 8% in dollar terms from their summer highs, with emerging market
stocks, U.S. small caps and oil all in correction territory (in other words, they have
declined 10% or more). Recent market weakness has also led to significant
outflows from equity funds. For the week ended October 8, nearly $13 billion
came out of equity funds.
At the same time, investors have been buying so-called safe-haven assets. So, while
investors were selling stocks, they moved $16 billion into bond funds and roughly
$47 billion into money market funds. Since bond yields drop as prices rise, the
recent spate of bond buying has pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
down to 2.28%, its lowest level since June of 2013.
Ironically, last week’s stock selling could have been driven by the paradox of a little
too much growth in the U.S. and too little everywhere else. A strong U.S. economy
continues to suggest a Fed tightening sometime in the first half of 2015. At the same
time, the rest of the world appears to be decelerating, with a few notable exceptions,
such as India. This trend was highlighted last week in a report by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF reduced its estimates for global growth and raised
the likelihood of another recession in the eurozone.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares® business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm
in 2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are
answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.
so what do i do

In recent weeks, investors
have been contending with
two trends: anxiety over a
change in Fed policy and
evidence of a slowdown in
the global economy.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer
or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of October 13, 2014,
and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
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