“Dado que los hitos se entrecruzan, mejor ser selectivos”

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock  - Miercoles, 29 de Abril

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La semana pasada, la renta variable en diferentes plazas mundiales volvió a alcanzar niveles récord. En Estados Unidos, el Nasdaq superó su máximo del año 2000. En Japón, el Nikkei batió los 20.000 puntos por primera vez en 15 años, mientras que, en China, la renta variable sigue desafiando a la gravedad. Estos logros son sólo números pero ofrecen una oportunidad para evaluar la situación actual. Creemos que los valores del sector tecnológico estadounidense no se encuentran en una burbuja, a diferencia del año 2000. En realidad, las valoraciones en este sector parecen más sobrias ahora que entonces. Sin embargo, aplicaremos cierta cautela o por lo menos seremos más selectivos, particularmente en mercados como China, donde el mercado de acciones A parece subir como la espuma

As Milestones Are Crossed, Be Selective

A P R I L 2 7, 2 0 1 5

A Record-Setting Week for Stocks

Stocks around the world rewrote the record books last week. In the United States,

the Nasdaq Composite Index eclipsed its 2000 peak, advancing 3.26% to close the

week at 5,092. In Japan, the Nikkei Index climbed above 20,000 for the first time in

15 years, while China’s equity market continues to defy gravity. Meanwhile, the

S&P 500 Index rose 1.72% to 2,117 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up

1.42% to 18,080. As for bonds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 1.87%

to 1.91% as its price correspondingly fell.

Such milestones are just numbers, but they do offer an opportunity to assess

where we are. Our take is that U.S. technology stocks are not in a bubble, unlike in

2000. However, we would exercise some caution, or at least selectivity, particularly

with respect to China, where the A-Share market appears increasingly frothy.

2015 Is Not Y2K

Last week, U.S. stocks were once again aided by merger-and-acquisition activity,

with Teva Pharmaceuticals making an unsolicited $40 billion bid to take over

Mylan. “Good enough” earnings also provided a measure of support. While IBM and

Facebook missed analysts’ expectations, partly due to the dollar’s strength,

Caterpillar, Amazon, Microsoft and Morgan Stanley all posted strong numbers.

The rally in stocks that has pushed the Nasdaq Composite to new highs is seen by

some as a sign of another tech bubble. In reality, however, valuations in the sector

look more sober today than back in 2000.

The current multiple on the sector is roughly 19.5 times trailing earnings, only

about 5% higher than the broader market and not much changed over the past

year. In contrast, in March of 2000, the U.S. technology sector was trading at over

72 times earnings, more than double the market’s valuation. The year leading up to

the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 was marked by relentless multiple

expansion, a one-year climb of more than 50%.

Another key differentiator today: The tech sector represents a more modest portion

of the overall stock market. At their peak, technology stocks accounted for roughly

30% of total U.S. market capitalization; today, the weight is around 20%. Technology

actually is once again the largest weighting in the S&P 500, but it is far less dominant

than it was back in 2000. Still, while we continue to favor the technolo

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