“Diversificación: Un antídoto para la volatilidad”

Las preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento están propiciando un comportamiento de aversión al riesgo, por lo que no sería una sorpresa que las rentabilidades de los bonos siguieran cayendo en picado (y sus precios subiendo). Además, los inversores siguen mostrando nerviosismo sobre qué indica el desplome de los precios de las materias primas con respecto a la economía internacional. Curiosamente, las acciones estadounidenses están a la zaga del resto de mercados en términos interanuales, a pesar de la relativa solidez económica de Estados Unidos. Nuestra intención no es abandonar la renta variable estadounidense, pero es un buen momento para que los inversores se aseguren de que sus carteras cuentan con una diversificación suficiente fuera de las fronteras de EE. UU.

Diversification: An Antidote to Volatility
j a n u a r y 2 0 , 2 0 1 5
Stocks Slip as Oil Still Slides
Despite a rebound on Friday, equities continued their early-year slide last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.27% to close at 17,511, the S&P 500 Index
was down 1.22% to 2,019, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.48% to end the
week at 4,634. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 1.97% to
1.83%, as its price correspondingly rose.
Behind the ongoing skid in stocks were fears over global growth, a poor economic
number in the U.S. and an uneven start to the fourth-quarter earnings season.
Interestingly, U.S. stocks are trailing other markets year-to-date, despite the
relative economic strength of the United States. We attribute this to diverging
central bank policies—and the fact that U.S. equities are currently one of the most
expensive markets in the world.
Gloomy News
A number of factors combined to push stocks lower last week. First, U.S. stocks
were hurt by a disappointing retail sales report for December that showed sales
fell by 0.9% from the prior month. Sales were lower even after adjusting for lower
gasoline prices. Adding to the gloom, the U.S. earnings season has gotten off to an
uneven start, particularly for the banks. JP Morgan started the trend, followed by
Citigroup and Bank of America reporting the worst combined trading revenue
since 2011.
In addition, investors are still nervous as to what the plunge in commodities prices
suggests about the global economy. Oil prices slid further last week, though they
rebounded by week’s end. And now oil is not the only commodity market in which
prices are reeling. Copper prices tumbled last week and are now at their lowest
level since 2009. This is particularly troubling given that copper is one of the more
economically sensitive commodities, suggesting that overall global growth
remains sluggish. It should be noted, however, that some of the plunge in copper,
as is the case with oil, can be attributed to excess supply.
With growth concerns driving a “risk-off trade,” it should come as no surprise that
bond yields continue to collapse (and their prices rise). U.S. 30-year bond yields hit
a record low of 2.40%. Beyond risk aversion, part of the rise in price and drop in
yield is a function of falling inflation expectations. Even in the U.S., where inflation
remains positive, inflation expectations are hitting multi-year lows, with the
10-year figure now below 1.60%, the lowest level since 2010.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
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WEEKLY INVESTMENT
COMMENTARY
With growth concerns
driving a “risk-off trade,”
it should come as no
surprise that bond yields
continue to collapse (and
their prices rise).
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Jan. 20, 2015, and
may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing
involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility
of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income
investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market
value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest
payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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Be diversified, and that
means casting your net
outside the U.S. as well.
This is especially important
today given that many
international economies,
although facing
considerable obstacles,
are likely to benefit from
one major tailwind: central
bank accommodation.
U.S. Stocks No Longer in the Lead
While the concerns around slowing global growth have been with us for a few
months now, the impact on stocks has changed. Unlike the past several years, U.S.
shares are now performing worse than the rest of the world. Year-to-date, the S&P
500 Index is down around 2%, underperforming the rest of the world (as measured
by the MSCI All Country World Index-ex U.S.).
The problem is simply that both expectations and valuations are particularly high for
U.S. stocks. U.S. economic fundamentals appear solid, but based on the price-tobook
measure, U.S. equities are trading at a premium of 60% and 80% versus other
developed and emerging markets, respectively. The relative size of the premium
makes the U.S. market vulnerable to any disappointment.
All of this underscores one of the basics of investing: Be diversified, and that means
casting your net outside the U.S. as well. This is especially important today given
that many international economies, although facing considerable obstacles, are
likely to benefit from one major tailwind: central bank accommodation.
Unlike the Federal Reserve, most of the major central banks in the world will be
easing rather than tightening monetary conditions in 2015. This week, the European
Central Bank is expected to initiate its own version of quantitative easing, expanding
its asset purchase program to include sovereign debt. Even central banks in
emerging markets are now in an easing mode. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India
cut its benchmark interest rate.
The bottom line: U.S. equities can move higher in 2015, but as we’ve already seen,
the path is likely to be accompanied by much more volatility. In addition,
international markets may benefit from less challenged valuations and the tailwind
of central bank accommodation. We would not abandon U.S. equities, but this is a
good time for investors to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified
outside the U.S.