Dudas dentro de la Fed (Subida de los mercdos)

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Jueves, 10 de Abril

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http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140409a.htm
Sigo pensando que la ambigüedad es positiva para el mercado. Y ayer tuvimos un nuevo ejemplo en el caso de las Actas del FOMC de marzo. Por un lado, la discusión interna que trata de separar lo que son las proyecciones sobre tipos de interés oficiales (al alza) del Comunicado (sesgo) del FOMC.

Además, la Fed se esfuerza en rectificar que el proceso de normalización monetaria no significa que haya un cambio hacia un sesgo alcista.

Participants agreed that, with the unemployment rate
approaching 6½ percent, it would soon be appropriate
for the Committee to change its forward guidance in
order to provide information about its decisions regarding
the federal funds rate after that threshold was
crossed. A range of views was expressed about the
form that such forward guidance might take. Some
participants favored quantitative guidance along the
lines of the existing thresholds, while others preferred a
qualitative approach that would provide additional information
regarding the factors that would guide the
Committee's policy decisions. Several participants suggested
that risks to financial stability should appear
more explicitly in the list of factors that would guide
decisions about the federal funds rate once the unemployment
rate threshold is crossed, and several participants
argued that the forward guidance should give
greater emphasis to the Committee's willingness to
keep rates low if inflation were to remain persistently
below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective.
Additional proposals included relying to a greater extent
on the Summary of Economic Projections as a communications device and including in the guidance
an indication of the Committee's willingness to adjust
policy to lean against undesired changes in financial
conditions.

La lectura del mercado es sin duda positiva....¿cómo podría serlo de otra forma? Al final, el Taper sigue su curso pero las dudas dentro de la Fed sobre el inicio de las subidas de tipos, como poco, apuntan a que será limitada y moderada en el tiempo.
El resto, es el exceso de liquidez.
Pero, al final, sigue siendo una decisión futura de política monetaria de tipo cualitativo.  Y los potenciales excesos en los mercados serán parte de las decisiones en el futuro.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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