Elecciones en México: a la tercera va la vencida

Irina Topa-Serry, AXA IM - Sabado, 23 de Junio

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Mexico’s presidential elections: third time’s the charm  The implications of Andrès Manuel Lopez Obrador becoming Mexico’s next leader § Mexicans go to the polls on 1 July. Some 3,400 elected positions are at stake (including the President, deputies senators, and gubernatorial elections), potentially reshaping the country’s political landscape. § We expect that Andrès Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, will be victorious and become the next President and that his coalition will obtain a small majority in both chambers of the Congress.

§ AMLO is pushing for a very different economic framework, which is unsettling investors. He has been opposed to recent structural reforms and the increase in social spending that is expected to accompany his election could damage Mexico’s creditworthiness. But we do not see this happening over the next two years. Additionally, we are confident in Mexico’s institutional strength.

§ Things to watch post elections: decisions on energy, education reform, on Mexico City airport, and the new North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) negotiation team.

§ Meanwhile, the macro picture remains resilient, as Banxico remains vigilant and proactive.

§ While officials continue to negotiate for amendments to the NAFTA agreement, the current round of talks are hampered  by uncertainty. Deadlines look set to be missed and we see the negotiations running into 2019. 

 

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