Encuentra oportunidades en un mundo de extremos

La semana pasada tuvo un final amargo tras el anuncio de unos datos de empleo en EE.UU. más débiles de lo que se esperaba. No obstante, la renta variable se dio la vuelta y termin el viernes en el terreno positivo. Excluyendo los datos de empleo en EE.UU., el resto de publicaciones de datos económicos han sido consistentemente positivas. Esto, a su vez, sugiere una posible subida de los tipos de interés a corto plazo, el fortalecimiento del dólar americano y la caída de los precios de las materias primas.

Investment Implications of an Economy That,
Yes, Is Still Improving
s e p t e m b e r 8 , 2 0 1 4
Weak Jobs Report Ends the Week on Sour Note
Last week ended on a sour note with a weaker-than-expected jobs number, but
stocks reversed and rallied by the close on Friday. Overall, however, stocks were
essentially flat for the shortened week: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up
0.23% to close the week at 17,137, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.20% to 2,007 and the
Nasdaq Composite Index edged up 0.04% to 4,582. Meanwhile, the yield on the
10-year Treasury rose from 2.34% to 2.46%, as its price correspondingly fell.
It is important to note that a weak August payroll report is not indicative of a
softening U.S. economy. In fact, while the U.S. economy still faces a number of
structural issues, most cyclical factors suggest the economy should be relatively
strong through the end of the year. This, in turn, suggests short-term interest
rates could rise, the dollar strengthen and commodity prices fall.
But Other Releases Paint a Brighter Picture
In August, the U.S. economy created 142,000 net new jobs, well below what economists
and analysts expected and the weakest number this year. However, we believe the
modest report was mostly a reflection of seasonal weakness and is likely to be revised
higher. Average monthly non-farm payroll gains are above the 200,000 level, consistent
with a decent economic expansion, even as structural headwinds remain.
Indeed, outside of the jobs report, other economic releases painted a consistently
positive picture. An important economic indicator, the Institute for Supply
Management’s manufacturing survey, showed that new orders reached their highest
level since 2004, while the service component of that survey hit a nine-year high.
In addition, the auto sector, benefiting from continued low interest rates, witnessed
a surge in sales to 17.45 million annualized, the best level since early 2006.
Rates and Dollar Up, Commodities Down
The cyclical upswing in the economy is having, and is likely to continue to have, an
impact on several asset classes.
First, the economic landscape is consistent with our view that shorter-term
interest rates are most vulnerable to rising rates. Long-term rates have remained
relatively stable (although they did rise 0.10% last week). This lack of volatility in
longer-term Treasuries is partly a function of the collapse in yields in Europe and
much of the developed world outside the U.S. Here’s why: Although Treasury yields
are low, they still appear attractive versus even lower rates in Europe and Japan,
which increases demand for U.S. Treasuries, driving down yields. Meanwhile,
short-term rates have been steadily grinding higher. While still a bit off of their
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm
in 2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
The cyclical upswing in the
economy is having, and is
likely to continue to have,
an impact on several
asset classes.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are
answers.