La Carta de la Bolsa - Estados Unidos más saneado pero no inmune al resto del mundo

Estados Unidos más saneado pero no inmune al resto del mundo

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock - Miercoles, 17 de Diciembre

La semana pasada, fuerzas compensatorias provocaron movimientos de la renta variable en direcciones opuestas. El lado positivo es que los números de ventas minoristas de noviembre en EE.UU. fueron una nueva evidencia de que la economía estadounidense está mejorando. Menos positivo es el hecho de que parece que EE.UU. está cada vez más solo en el camino de la recuperación. De ahora en adelante, los inversores deberían esperar divergencias significativas en la economía mundial. Dado el desigual crecimiento global y el inminente cambio en la política monetaria en EE.UU., la volatilidad en los mercados puede aumentar. Contribuyen a esta incertidumbre las potenciales consecuencias de políticas globales.

U.S. Healthier, But Not Immune to Rest of World

d e c e m b e r 1 5 , 2 0 1 4

A Turbulent Week for Stocks

Stocks and other risky assets experienced particularly violent moves last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.77% to close the week at 17,280, the

S&P 500 Index dropped 3.52% to 2,002, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was

down 2.65% to 4,653. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from

2.30% to 2.10%, as its price correspondingly rose.

It was not a week for the faint of heart and, for better or for worse, we are likely

to see more turbulence ahead. Given uneven global growth and the impending

tightening of U.S. monetary conditions, investors can expect more bouts of

volatility. Adding to the uncertainty are potential consequences from elections

in Japan and Greece.

Strong Growth in the U.S., But That’s Not Enough

Last week, countervailing forces pulled stocks in opposite directions. On the

positive side, a strong November retail sales number offered more evidence

suggesting that the U.S. economy is improving. Less positive is the fact that

the U.S. is increasingly alone in its resiliency.

Outside the U.S., we’re seeing several signs of slowing growth: weak import/export

data from China, multiple downgrades of global oil demand accompanied by a

further plunge in prices, more stringent collateral requirements in China and

renewed angst over European politics.

This dichotomy between the U.S. and the rest of the world was starkly represented

by the money invested in mutual funds and exchange traded products for the week

ended December 10. U.S. ETFs garnered $2.4 billion in assets, while European

funds suffered $1.6 billion of outflows.

Still, economic resilience at home does not mean U.S. assets are immune to the

global slowdown. The S&P 500 Index traded down to a five-week low and volatility

—as measured by the VIX Index—rose above the 20 threshold for the first time

since October. The VIX was below 12 less than two weeks ago. We’ve also seen a

significant sell-off in high yield bonds. This has sent the “spread,” or the difference

between the yield for high yield bonds and U.S. Treasuries, to its widest mark

since June 2013.

But the biggest losses were once again in the commodity sector, particularly oil.

The price of U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil slipped below $60/barrel, the lowest

level since July 2009.

Russ Koesterich, Managing Director,

is BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment

Strategist, as well as Global Chief

Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s

iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was

previously Global Head of Investment

Strategy for active equities and a senior

portfolio manager in the U.S. Market

Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm

in 2005, he was Chief North American

Strategist for State Street Bank.

It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are

answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.

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with my money?®

WEEKLY INVESTMENT

COMMENTARY

Given uneven global

growth and the impending

tightening of U.S. monetary

conditions, investors can

expect more bouts of

volatility.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or

solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Dec. 15, 2014, and

may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary

and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to

accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing

involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility

of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income

investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market

value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest

payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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Before the calendar even

turns the page, we’re

already seeing global politics

re-emerge as a key

investment driver.

Meanwhile, in contrast, safe haven assets rallied. German bund yields fell below

0.70%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed below 2.10% and U.S. tax-exempt bonds

experienced a 19th straight week of inflows.

Global Politics Stoke Risk … and Opportunity

The contrasts between the U.S. and the rest of the world are on display on the

political stage as well. The year ahead is likely to be one of relative inactivity in U.S.

politics. Indeed, the U.S. Congress just barely managed to squeeze a funding bill

through and avert another government shutdown. However, before the calendar

even turns the page, we’re already seeing global politics re-emerge as a key

investment driver. The past week featured two examples: one that we would

characterize as a risk and one a potential opportunity.

The risk comes from Europe. Last Monday, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras

surprised everyone by moving up the date for a Greek parliamentary vote for a new

president. (The first vote will take place on Dec. 17, but the final round does not

occur until late in the month.) It is not clear the government can reach the

necessary majority to maintain power.

Anxiety over the election and the potential for a new government in Greece less

committed to reform is already being felt in asset prices. Not only did Greek assets

sink on the news last week, but broader European equities suffered one of their

worst weeks in months, reflecting investor concerns that the ramifications would

be felt throughout the eurozone.

While European politics represent a risk, Japan’s may offer an opportunity.

Preliminary results from Sunday’s election suggest that the ruling LDP party

maintained, and potentially increased its super-majority in Japan’s lower house

(The Diet). The strong showing by the LDP party will—in theory—give Prime

Minister Shinzo Abe the political clout to push through more pro-growth policies,

including trimming the corporate tax to 20%, enacting labor market reform, and

deregulating the energy and farming sectors. All of these, in our

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