Europe Economic Weekly Central bank fireworks
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research - Martes, 27 de Mayo
The weekly view: Risks are alive and kicking This week, we saw a return of uncertainties in the euro area. European elections on Sunday could signal more political uncertainties at the national levels, while the ECB could disappoint markets in June, having raised expectations to high levels through recent speeches.
Euro area: ECB: from market dreams to reality
ECB Board members have raised expectations such that markets now expect fireworks at the June meeting. We expect rate cuts and possibly credit support measures to be announced.
UK: BoE starting to break ranks
Having passed the 7% unemployment rate threshold, leaving interest rates on hold was a more balanced decision for some BoE members in May.
Peripheral watch: Greece, the road to stabilization
Positive real growth should be two quarters away, absent a political shock. But nominal activity remains subdued and could pose a threat for deficit targets.
The week ahead:
Next week, we expect EA industrial confidence to decline to -4.1 while service confidence could inch up to 4.1. Spain HICP may increase from 0.3% to 0.4% in May while Italy HICP may edge down from 0.5% to 0.4%.
|
Date |
GMT |
Country |
Data/Event |
For |
BofAML |
Cons.† |
Previous |
|
25 May |
|
Euro area |
ECB Forum on Central Banking |
|
|
|
|
|
28 May |
09:00 |
Euro area |
M3 Money Supply (yoy) |
Apr |
1.1% |
-- |
1.1% |
|
28 May |
10:00 |
Euro area |
Economic Confidence |
May |
|
-- |
102.0 |
|
28 May |
10:00 |
Euro area |
Industrial Confidence |
May |
-4.1 |
-- |
-3.6 |
|
28 May |
10:00 |
Euro area |
Consumer Confidence (F) |
May |
|
-- |
-- |
|
28 May |
10:00 |
Euro area |
Services Confidence |
May |
4.1 |
-- |
3.5 |
|
28 May |
10:00 |
Euro area |
Business climate indicator |
May |
0.2 |
-- |
0.3 |
|
29 May |
08:00 |
Spain |
GDP (qoq, F) |
Q1 |
0.4% |
-- |
0.4% |
|
29 May |
08:00 |
Spain |
GDP (yoy, F) |
Q1 |
0.6% |
-- |
0.6% |
|
30 May |
08:00 |
Spain |
CPI EU Harmonised (P, yoy) |
May |
0.4% |
-- |
0.3% |
|
30 May |
08:00 |
Spain |
CPI (P, yoy) |
May |
0.3% |
-- |
0.4% |
|
30 May |
10:00 |
Italy |
CPI NIC incl. tobacco (P, mom) |
May |
-0.1% |
-- |
0.2% |
|
30 May |
10:00 |
Italy |
CPI NIC incl. tobacco (P, yoy) |
May |
0.5% |
-- |
0.6% |
|
30 May |
10:00 |
Italy |
CPI EU Harmonized (P, mom) |
May |
-0.1% |
-- |
0.6% |
|
30 May |
10:00 |
Italy |
CPI EU Harmonized (P, yoy) |
May |
0.4% |
-- |
0.5% |
|
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Reuters, Central banks
|
|||||||
|
Table 1: Ratings calendar 30th May |
|||
|
Country |
Agency |
Stance |
Expectation |
|
France |
DBRS |
Stable |
No change |
Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
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