FED ¿cómo diseñar el futuro sin influir en el presente?

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Jueves, 22 de Mayo

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http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140521a.htm
Al final, la Fed sigue valorando que la continuidad de los estímulos para bajar el desempleom no supone un mayor riesgo de un indeseable repunte de la inflación. De hecho, podría tener consecuencias positivas relativas en ambos objetivos inflación y desempleo.

Pero, dicho lo anterior, es evidente que todo tiene un límite. Y por primera vez la Fed habla abiertamente de cómo asumirá este límite. "Como parte de un planeamiento prudente pero sin que esto suponga aceptar que será a corto plazo". Con todo, se baraja la combinación de varios instrumentos de forma que sea ordenado: aumentar los tipos de interés pagados en la reservas, repos inversos d/d, a plazo y depósitos a plazo. Y especialmente la Comunicación.

¿El impacto en el mercado? Subida de las bolsas, ligeras ventas de deuda y un movimiento de ida y vuelta del EUR ahora en los niveles de media mañana de ayer en 1.368 USD.
Es complicado.

Incluyo un resumen de las Actas...

However, some participants remarked that it was too
early to confirm that the bounceback in economic activity
would put the economy on a path of sustained
above-trend economic growth.

Conditions in the labor market continued to improve
over the intermeeting period and participants generally
expected further gradual improvement.

Many participants saw the recent behavior of
the prices of food, energy, shelter, and imports as consistent
with a stabilization in inflation and judged that
the transitory factors that had reduced inflation, such as
declines in administered prices for medical services,
were fading.

In their discussion of financial stability, participants
generally did not see imbalances that posed significant
near-term risks to the financial system and the broader
economy, but they nevertheless reviewed some financial
developments that pointed to potential future risks.
A couple of participants noted that conditions in the
leveraged loan market had become stretched, although
equity cushions on new deals remained above levels
seen prior to the financial crisis. Two others saw declining
credit spreads, particularly on speculative-grade
corporate bonds, as consistent with an increase in investors'
appetite for risk. In addition, several participants
noted that the low level of expected volatility
implied by some financial market prices might also signal
an increase in risk appetite. Some stated that it
would be helpful to continue to explore the appropriate
regulatory, supervisory, and monetary policy responses
to potential risks to financial stability..

Monetary Policy Normalization
In a joint session of the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, meeting participants discussed issues
associated with the eventual normalization of the
stance and conduct of monetary policy. The Committee's
discussion of this topic was undertaken as part of
prudent planning and did not imply that normalization
would necessarily begin sometime soon. A staff
presentation outlined several approaches to raising
short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate
to do so, and to controlling the level of short-term interest
rates once they are above the effective lower
bound, during a period when the Federal Reserve will
have a very large balance sheet. The approaches differed
in terms of the combination of policy tools that
might be used to accomplish those objectives. In addition
to the rate of interest paid on excess reserve balances,
the tools considered included fixed-rate overnight
reverse repurchase (ON RRP) operations, term
reverse repurchase agreements, and the Term Deposit
Facility (TDF). The staff presentation discussed the
potential implications of each approach for financial
intermediation and financial markets, including the federal
funds market, and the possible implications for
financial stability. In addition, the staff outlined options
for additional operational testing of the policy
tools.
Following the staff presentation, meeting participants
discussed a wide range of topics related to policy normalization.
Participants generally agreed that starting
to consider the options for normalization at this meeting
was prudent, as it would help the Committee to
make decisions about approaches to policy normalization
and to communicate its plans to the public well
before the first steps in normalizing policy become appropriate.
Early communication, in turn, would enhance
the clarity and credibility of monetary policy and
help promote the achievement of the Committee's
statutory objectives. It was emphasized that the tools
available to the Committee will allow it to reduce policy
accommodation when doing so becomes appropriate.
Participants considered how various combinations of
tools could have different implications for the degree
of control over short-term interest rates, for the Federal
Reserve's balance sheet and remittances to the
Treasury, for the functioning of the federal funds market,
and for financial stability in both normal times and
in periods of stress. Because the Federal Reserve has
not previously tightened the stance of policy while
holding a large balance sheet, most participants judged
that the Committee should consider a range of options
and be prepared to adjust the mix of its policy tools as
warranted. Participants generally favored the further
testing of various tools, including the TDF, to better
assess their operational readiness and effectiveness. No
decisions regarding policy normalization were taken;
participants requested additional analysis from the staff
and agreed that it would be helpful to continue to review
these issues at upcoming meetings. The Board
meeting concluded at the end of the discussion.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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