Invirtiendo en una era de divergencia

La semana pasada la renta variable se apreció, no obstante, dicha apreciación no ocurrió por igual en todas las clases de activos.
Continuamos viendo diferencias significativas entre países y segmentos de mercado. Los inversores deberían centrarse en buscar valor relativo a la vez que evitan segmentos de mercado que puedan ser especialmente sensibles ante subidas de tipos de interés.

Stocks Move Higher, But Not Everywhere
Stocks were generally higher last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising
1.72% to close the week at 17,279, the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.26% to 2,010 and
the Nasdaq Composite Index inching up 0.26% to 4,579. However, the Russell 2000
Index, which tracks small-cap U.S. stocks, fell 2.17%. Meanwhile, the yield on the
10-year Treasury slipped from 2.61% to 2.58%, as its price correspondingly rose.
On balance, the economic and monetary environment remains supportive of
stocks, but not every country or every sector is feeling the good vibrations. We
continue to see significant differences among countries, as well as market
segments. Going forward, that means investors should continue to focus on
finding relative value, while avoiding segments of the market likely to be
particularly sensitive to rising interest rates.
For Some, Record Highs
Developed market equities rallied last week, with some country averages hitting
all-time or multi-year highs. Stocks continue to benefit from low inflation and
accommodative monetary policy, both of which support higher multiples, as well
as continued good fortune in avoiding “worst case” geopolitical scenarios. U.S.
equities hit a record high and European equities advanced to a 6 ½-year high last
week, but the biggest rally occurred in Japan. The tailwind from a cheaper yen
pushed Japanese equities to their best close since the fall of 2007.
Outside of Japan, stocks were helped by several factors, including the news that
Scottish voters rejected independence and will remain part of the U.K., and a
record $21.8 billion IPO by Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba.
Separating the Wheat From the Chaff
However, last week’s positive news was not universal, and it illustrates an important
trend today: divergence. This is manifested in both markets and economies.
To begin, the global economy is increasingly marked by economic divergence:
A strong U.S. and U.K. are in contrast with softer growth in Europe. This was on
display last week in the form of diverging central bank policies. The U.S. Federal
Reserve’s latest estimate of interest rates suggested a sooner-than-anticipated
move away from ultra-low rates. At the same time, a “No” vote in last week’s
Scottish referendum cleared the way for a rate hike by the Bank of England. In
contrast, the European Central Bank is struggling with very different problems:
how to grow its balance sheet and provide more monetary accommodation.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm
in 2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
On balance, the economic
and monetary environment
remains supportive of stocks,
but not every country or
every sector is feeling the
good vibrations. We continue
to see significant differences
among countries, as well as
market segments.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are
answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.