Julius Baer _ resumen del año: China, petróleo, Brexit, Deutsche Bank y Trump

Redacción - Sabado, 24 de Diciembre

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ECONOMICS The year that was: China, oil, Brexit, Deutsche, TrumpAn eventful but not unfruitful year draws to a close. The Chinese circuit breakers caught investors off guard in the first working week, then oil prices tanked taking emerging markets along with them. By mid-year all eyes went to Europe with the Brexit decision and Deutsche Bank as a poster child for issues in the European banking system. Just to face another surprise with the Trump win and its related reflation trade. In performance terms the winner is emerging Europe in the equity space, US high yield in fixed income and crude oil in the alternative space. Last in line were healthcare stocks, cash and UK real estate accordingly.

Lots of headline news and political shocks turned 2016 into an eventful year. Yet returns were far from being as bad as many investors feared after the surprises materialised. 

 

Christian Gattiker, Chief Strategist and Head Research, Julius Baer

FIXED INCOME

 

US government bonds: A zero sum year

 

Merrill Lynch’s index of 7 to 10-year Treasury bonds stands exactly at the level it started the year, i.e. the total return is 0.0%. The index had gained 8.4% from January to July but rendered back all these gains when it became obvious that the US economy is accelerating, the oil price will not fall any further and when Donald Trump won the elections. The high-yield bond index, meanwhile, had started the year with a loss of more than 5% but ends with a gain of better than 17%. In the short to medium-term, we expect this trend to continue as incoming US economic data points to a strong start into the year of the world’s largest economy, which is supportive for credit risk but detrimental for government bonds. Today’s numbers should confirm this picture, with low readings for initial claims, an upward revision of the real growth rate in Q3 2016 and solid numbers for personal consumption and consumer sentiment on the menue. 

 

Markus Allenspach, Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer

 

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COMMODITIES

 

Natural gas breaks the holiday mood

 

Commodity markets seemingly have slowly flipped into holiday mood, except for natural gas. North American benchmark Henry Hub prices jumped more than 8% yesterday as the latest weather forecasts suggest cold temperatures to return in early January. The past week’s cold spell propelled heating demand and caused large storage drawdowns, and the latest outlook suggests a further tightening of the market balance. That said, easing pipeline constraints and the reviving shale boom should support supplies over the coming months. Natural gas looks overpriced but yesterday’s move reveals how much of an impact difficult to predict changes in the weather outlook have on the market during the winter heating season. Meanwhile, oil prices struggle to keep above USD 55 per barrel. News about resuming production in Libya and about rising inventories in the United States pressured prices somewhat yesterday. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact and provide lasting support to prices. Quota compliance has historically been poor and the reviving shale boom will partially offset the oil producers’ efforts.

 

Norbert Ruecker, Head Commodities Research, Julius Baer

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