La economía es “aceptable” para el avance de la renta variable

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock - Miercoles, 20 de Mayo

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La semana pasada, la renta variable estadounidense se revalorizó: el índice S&P 500 alcanzó nuevos máximos históricos el jueves y viernes. La renta variable se benefició de la caída delos  rendimientos de la renta fija, del aumento en la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones (M&A) y de la recompra de acciones propias por parte de numerosas compañías. Asimismo, la semana pasada pocos indicios sobre el aumento de la inflación —algo que se ha convertido en la nueva norma— a pesar de las crecientes expectativas de un repunte. Creemos que la inflación se mantendrá en niveles reducidos por varias razones: el ritmo moderado de la recuperación, unos salarios limitados y el hecho de que el reciente repunte del precio del petróleo podría no tener mucho más recorrido. Esta situación de crecimiento positivo —pero no excelente—, unos precios del petróleo que oscilan dentro de un rango determinado y una baja inflación apoya nuestro posicionamiento base de inversión. Recomendamos a los inversores que se aferren a unas pocas temáticas clave: preferencia por renta variable frente a la renta fija, mayor asignación a mercados internacionales de renta variable y una postura que aproveche las oportunidades en renta fija

Stocks Advance in a “Good Enough” Economy

May 18, 2015

S&P 500 Notches a New Record

U.S. equities advanced last week, with the S&P 500 Index notching new record

closes on Thursday and Friday. For the week, the S&P advanced 0.33% to 2,123,

the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44% to 18,272, and the Nasdaq Composite

Index gained 0.90% to 5,048. Meanwhile, bond markets settled after yields spiked

earlier in the week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury ending unchanged

at 2.15%.

A pullback in bond yields, more mergers-and-acquisitions (M&A) activity and a

wave of companies buying back shares all aided stocks last week. Overall, we

continue to see an environment of “good enough” growth, reinforcing our view for

both bond yields and stock prices to grind higher. That, in turn, leads us to

continue to favor stocks over bonds.

Bond Yields Stabilize …

Last week, stocks benefited from companies putting their cash to work. We saw

another round of M&A activity with Verizon agreeing to buy 1990’s icon AOL for

$4.4 billion, while Danaher is set to purchase Pall for $13.8 billion. In addition,

companies continue to buy back their own stock. Last month brought a monthly

record with the announcement of $141 billion in share buybacks, up 121% from

April 2014.

But stocks also profited from a pullback in long-term bond yields. Earlier in the

week, yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 2.35% and 3.10%,

respectively, both highs for the year. However, a combination of factors helped

bonds stabilize by week’s end.

First, the Treasury’s auction of 10-year notes met with strong demand, suggesting

bond prices have fallen to a level investors find attractive. Second, economic data

continue to come in mixed. On the positive side, the labor market appears to be

recovering from March’s softness. The four-week average of initial jobless claims

hit the lowest level since 2000. However, consumers are still not spending. Retail

sales were flat in April, once again coming in below expectations. On a year-overyear

basis, adjusted retail sales are now up less than 1%, the slowest rate of

growth since 2009.

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT

COMMENTARY

Overall, we continue to see

an environment of “good

enough” growth, reinforcing

our view for both bond yields

and stock prices to grind

higher. That, in turn, leads

us to continue to favor

stocks over bonds.

Russ Koesterich

Managing Director and BlackRock’s

Global Chief Investment Strategist,

as well as Global Chief Investment

Strategist for BlackRock’s iShares

business. Mr. Koesterich was previously

Global Head of Investment Strategy for

active equities and a senior portfolio

manager in the U.S. Market Neutral

Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2005,

he was Chief North American Strategist

for State Street Bank.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or

solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of May 18, 2015, and

may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary

and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to

accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing

involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility

of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income

investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market

value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest

payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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We suggest investors stick

with a few key themes: a

preference for stocks over

bonds, a healthy allocation

to international equities

and an opportunistic stance

in fixed income.

… As Do Oil Prices

In addition, in what’s becoming a bit of a pattern, last week brought little evidence

of inflation, despite rising expectations for a spike. Producer prices in April

unexpectedly fell by 0.4%. We believe inflation will remain low for a variety of

reasons: a modest recovery, constrained wages and the fact that the recent rally

in oil may not have much further to go.

Oil prices have climbed on rising demand, slowing U.S. production and, more

recently, falling supply. U.S. crude inventories have now dropped for two

consecutive weeks after rising for 17 straight weeks.

However, the recent rebound in oil prices may actually be the impetus for the rally

to stall. With U.S. crude prices now 25% above their March lows, U.S. exploration

and production companies are considering a resumption in drilling. Two recent

examples: EOG said earlier in May that it plans to increase drilling as soon as

crude stabilizes at around $65 per barrel while Pioneer is looking to deploy more

rigs as early as July.

Any new supply would help to slow the rally and keep oil prices contained,

probably in a range between $50 and $70 per barrel. This should help inflation

remain both low and stable.

The main consequence of the combination of mixed economic data and still

quiescent inflation is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates

before the autumn. This helps explain the rebound in bond prices by week’s end,

as the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 2.15% by Friday. Two-year yields, the

most sensitive to Fed policy, slipped to 0.55%, roughly 10 basis points (0.10%)

below where they started the year.

Reiterating Some Key Themes

This environment of good, but not great, growth, range-bound oil prices and low

inflation supports our basic views on investment positioning. We suggest investors

stick with a few key themes: a preference for stocks over bonds, a healthy

allocation to international equities and an opportunistic stance in fixed income.

We don’t expect bond yields to rise sharply, but as the last few weeks have

demonstrated, even a modest backup in yields will inflict some pain.

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