La renta variable tiende al alza, pero los beneficios podrían ser un obstáculo

• La renta variable estadounidense se revalorizó la semana pasada, con las materias primas a la cabeza. Irónicamente, las subidas y bajadas de la volatilidad no han sido acordes a las temáticas de mercado durante los últimos meses
• Desde el verano, la negociación en los mercados ha estado marcada, en gran medida, por una reacción negativa a la evidente desaceleración mundial
• Sin embargo, la semana pasada prácticamente todas las clases de activos sensibles al ciclo económico se apreciaron, a pesar de las pruebas que constatan la desaceleración de la economía mundial
• Por el contrario, los inversores obviaron las previsiones y se centraron en aspectos positivos: un giro acomodaticio en la actitud de la Reserva Federal y la firma de un importante acuerdo comercial
• Es probable que ahora las miradas vuelvan a centrarse en los beneficios en Estados Unidos. Los analistas esperan una disminución de los mismos en el tercer trimestre, y durante los últimos tres meses, las estimaciones de crecimiento de los beneficios han caído
• La actividad del mercado de la semana pasada sirvió para reforzar nuestra preferencia por los bonos de alto rendimiento estadounidense y la renta variable japonesa

WEEKLY INVESTMENT COMMENTARY Russ Koesterich Managing Director and BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, as well as Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was previously Global Head of Investment Strategy for active equities and a senior portfolio manager in the U.S. Market Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2005, he was Chief North American Strategist for State Street Bank. It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information. SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY?® Virtually every economically sensitive asset advanced despite a slew of evidence confirming everyone’s worst fears: The global economy is indeed decelerating. Battered Stocks Stage a Comeback U.S. stocks jumped last week, with beaten-down commodity names leading the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.71% to 17,084, the S&P 500 Index climbed 3.23% to 2,014 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added 2.68% to close the week at 4,830. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 1.99% to 2.09%, as its price correspondingly fell. The week’s gains were broad-based, extending to other risky assets, such as commodities and high yield bonds. Ironically, the gains and drop in volatility were at odds with the market themes of the past several months. But if the week seemed a bit incongruous, it nonetheless served to bolster the case for two asset classes we favor: high yield bonds and Japanese equities. Investors Cheer a Trade Deal Since the summer, trading has been largely driven by negative reaction to growing evidence of a global slowdown. First the fears were centered in China and the broader emerging market (EM) universe. Then, following the release of a disappointing September employment report, investors started to grow anxious that the slowdown in EM would infect the U.S. economy. Last week, however, virtually every economically sensitive asset advanced despite a slew of evidence confirming everyone’s worst fears: The global economy is indeed decelerating. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management Services Index report was light. In Europe, German factory orders were soft after being dragged down by weaker Chinese demand. And on a global basis, growth estimates were once again cut by the International Monetary Fund. Nevertheless, investors looked past the soft data and focused on several positives. First, most investors placed a dovish spin on the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. They also took solace from some stabilization in the Chinese currency and had generally less angst over emerging markets, which rallied sharply on the week. But arguably the most important and substantial event was a tentative agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. After years of tortuous negotiations, trade negotiators agreed to the outlines of the deal. The TPP is an extensive pact that goes well beyond tariff reduction, gradually lowering trade barriers to goods and services (it will introduce more than 18,000 tariff cuts), and setting common standards for trade, investment and labor. The potential impact is significant: The initial 12 countries, including both the U.S. and Japan, comprise 26% Last week’s market action served to reinforce our preference for two asset classes in particular: U.S. high yield and Japanese equities. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Oct. 12, 2015, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. ©2015 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA. Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee 5409A-MC-1015 / USR–7401 of global trade. However, the big winners, given existing tariffs and costs, are Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia. Expect South Korea and the Philippines to follow once the deal has been signed. Why did investors react with such enthusiasm to the deal? One reason: In a world in which both fiscal and monetary policy are constrained in many countries, investors were justifiably excited over any development that holds the prospect of boosting global growth, even if over a longer time horizon. With market volatility temporarily quieted as macro issues stabilize, the focus is now likely to shift back to U.S. earnings. Unfortunately, the outlook is not promising: Analysts are expecting a profit decline in the third quarter, and over the past three months, earnings growth estimates have dropped from -1% to -5%, with expectations also factoring in a decline in revenue. The energy sector is the main culprit, but even outside of that sector earnings are expected to be flat. Absent an unexpected improvement in earnings, or at least more positive guidance for the fourth quarter, the rally in U.S. equities is likely to be contained. Where to Look Given the limited prospects for earnings-driven gains in U.S. equities, where should investors be looking? Last week’s market action served to reinforce our preference for two asset classes in particular: U.S. high yield and Japanese equities. Last week, U.S. high yield rallied, with the gains led by energy-related names. Yet yields relative to Treasuries are still quite attractive, and in the absence of a full-blown economic downturn, we see value in the high yield space, a theme investors are starting to embrace. The recent turnaround in high yield coincided with the largest ever weekly inflow into high yield exchange traded funds, roughly $1.8 billion. The case for Japanese equities was reinforced by last week’s tentative agreement on the TPP. The deal will do little to boost Japan’s economy in the short term, but it is a significant positive for a country struggling with long-term growth issues. On the heels of the news, Japanese equities staged their biggest weekly rally in months. We continue to favor Japanese stocks.