Los bonos USA apenas registran fugas de envergadura

Witold Bahrke,Nordea Asset Management - Lunes, 27 de Marzo

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Los flujos acumulados de tres meses (febrero de 2017 incluido) pusieron de relieve importantes diferencias regionales que, en parte, reflejan el riesgo político de este año. Todas las categorías principales de los fondos de renta fija europea han experimentado salidas en periodos de tres meses consecutivos, siendo los fondos de deuda europea de alto rendimiento la única excepción. Los fondos de renta fija estadounidense registraron una mayor rentabilidad que sus homólogos europeos, lo que confirma nuestra preferencia relativa por los bonos estadounidenses con calificaciones elevadas frente a los europeos. Los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense sufrieron únicamente salidas de escasa envergadura, mientras que la deuda corporativa experimentó flujos de entrada a comienzos de este año, impulsados probablemente por el clima de tolerancia al riesgo que ha reinado en lo que va de año. La depreciación del dólar y las sorpresas positivas en el plano macroeconómico fomentaron que los inversores volvieran a interesarse por los fondos de deuda emergente, ya que las salidas de finales de 2016 se convirtieron en flujos de entrada a comienzos del presente año. En este sentido, los bonos reflejaron ampliamente el mismo cambio en las preferencias de los inversores que la renta variable a escala regional.

2017 bond market update

 

 

Political risks have been driving European bond flows in the first quarter of 2017

 

 

 

Looking over the past 3-months, here’s what has happened in the bond market:

 

•  3-month accumulated flows (including Feb. 2017) demonstrated remarkable regional differences, which partly reflect this year’s political risk picture.
• All major categories of European bond funds have seen outflows on a 3 month rolling basis, with European high yield being the only exception. US bond funds performed less poorly than their European counterparts, confirming our relative preference for US high graded bonds over European bonds. US Treasuries only suffering marginal outflows, whereas corporate bonds actually saw inflows in the beginning of 2017, likely driven by the general risk-friendly environment year-to-date.
• A falling US dollar and positive macro surprises caused EM bond funds to come back in favour, as outflows in the end of 2016 turned to inflows in the beginning of this year. In that sense, bonds very much reflected the same change in investor preferences as equities did on a regional level.

 

 

Is reflation trade short-lived?

 

“On a general note, the frequently cited reflation trade is not evident in the flows,” says Witold Bahrke, Senior macro Strategist for Nordea Asset Management. “Net flows into European and US inflation linked bond funds have actually decelerated and are now slightly negative. This is in contradiction to the general reflation narrative out there. Moreover, there seems to be no evidence of an accelerating rotation out of bonds. On a total level, bonds only suffered negative net flows in November 2016 when the reflation hype was peaking, and jumped back into positive territory afterwards. As the graph illustrates, the odds of a Le Pen victory have a significant impact on European government bond performance (graph). Unless the chances of a Le Pen victory decline markedly, some volatility in flows in and out of Europe should be expected, with an overall negative bias dominating flows. In the government bond space, we therefore continue to favour US over Europe. However, in the absence of an extreme political scenario, there’s no European bond-Armageddon in sight.”

 

 

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