“Los valores cíclicos lideran el repunte de los mercados bursátiles”

Las acciones siguieron subiendo la semana pasada y, en lo que va de año, ya han logrado superar a los bonos. En términos generales, la renta variable se está beneficiando de los indicios de estabilización económica en Europa y Japón. Por ahora, los inversores ven más allá de algunos puntos débiles aún evidentes y de los posibles obstáculos. Esperamos que el crecimiento mundial se estabilice después del retroceso del año pasado y que justifique así la estructuración de una cartera de renta de renta variable más amplia y diversificada, sobreponderando esta clase de activos en comparación con la renta fija. Los inversores están empezando a rotar a segmentos de mercado más cíclicos, una tendencia que respaldamos. Observamos oportunidades específicas en las acciones del sector tecnológico, así como en grandes empresas integradas del sector petrolero, que están empezando a responder a la subida del precio del crudo

Cyclicals Lead Stock Market Rally
f e b r u a r y 1 7, 2 0 1 5
Stocks Pass Bonds for the Year
Stocks continued to advance last week and are now ahead of bonds for the year.
The Nasdaq Composite Index led the pack in the U.S., rising 3.14% to 4,893, while the
Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.09% to close the week at 18,019, and the S&P
500 Index rose 1.99% to 2,096. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury continued
its recent climb, rising from 1.95% to 2.06% as its price correspondingly fell.
On a global basis, equities are being helped by signs of economic stabilization in
Europe and Japan. We expect global growth to steady after declining last year,
supporting the case for a broad, diversified equity portfolio and an overweight
relative to bonds. We see particular opportunities in technology stocks, as well as
the large integrated oil companies, which are starting to respond to rising oil prices.
Improvement Outside the U.S.
Stocks advanced last week in all of the major global regions. Sentiment was
buoyed by a tentative ceasefire in Ukraine, signs of stabilization in the global
economy and some strong earnings numbers from so-called cyclical companies,
or those firms that tend to perform better when the economy is strengthening.
For now, investors are looking past some still noticeable soft spots and potential
headwinds. Issues linger in Greece, where the government and the European
Union are still struggling to come to an agreement over the country’s international
debt obligations.
Here at home, U.S. retail sales disappointed for a second month in a row. As it
turns out, U.S. consumers are saving, not spending, their windfall from lower
gasoline prices. This suggests to us that even with a stronger labor market, the
U.S. consumer is no longer able to be the engine of global growth.
Fortunately, we’re starting to see some marginal improvement in the economic
outlook outside the United States, namely in Europe. The Citi European Economic
Surprise Index recently hit its highest level since the fall of 2013. Of note, Germany
notched a surprising jump in fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which
surged at a 2.8% annualized rate. Economic improvement, along with a weaker
euro and increased bank lending, are having an impact. In particular, industrial
and auto companies—both beneficiaries of a weaker European currency—are
seeing significant improvements in sales.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
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WEEKLY INVESTMENT
COMMENTARY
We expect global growth to
steady after declining last
year, supporting the case for
a broad, diversified equity
portfolio and an overweight
relative to bonds.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Feb. 17, 2015, and
may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
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Another sector worth
considering is energy,
specifically the large
integrated oil companies,
which we believe will be
the beneficiary of the
marginally improved
global economic outlook.
Japan also appears to be shaking off its recent lethargy. Last week, stocks there
hit a seven-year high. Equities benefited from strong manufacturing data, including
a more than 8% jump in core machine orders.
Finally, while emerging markets have not quite regained their old swagger, there
are some success stories, notably India. It now appears that India actually outgrew
China in the final quarter of 2014.
Technology and Energy Worth a Look
In last week’s commentary, we highlighted the dangers in defensive, yield-producing
stocks, such as utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which we believe
are vulnerable to even a modest rise in U.S. interest rates. Indeed, last week the
Philadelphia Utility Index was down another 3.5% and investors are starting to
rotate into more cyclical parts of the market, a trend we would endorse.
One area where we see opportunity is technology. Last week, Cisco posted strong
earnings and a 7% jump in revenue, and Apple became the first company to reach
a milestone $700 billion market capitalization. For the week, the U.S. technology
sector was up over 4%. The recent strength in technology has helped push the
Nasdaq Composite Index to its highest level since early 2000.
Another sector worth considering is energy, specifically the large integrated oil
companies, which we believe will be the beneficiary of the marginally improved
global economic outlook. In a pattern similar to what we’ve seen over the past few
weeks, oil prices rallied on Friday to end the week sharply higher. The catalysts:
a further drop in the U.S. oil rig count, which indicates supplies may tighten and
push prices higher, as well as the GDP acceleration in Europe. We believe this
signals some stabilization in the global economy and, by extension, demand for
oil. With the recent surge in oil prices benefiting large, global companies, the S&P
Global Energy Index is up roughly 13% from its recent lows and is now positive
year-to-date. We continue to see value in this segment of the market.