“Mantener el rumbo mientras la Reserva Federal indica qué dirección tomará”

Semana volátil para la renta variable estadounidense, que acabó acumulando ganancias. Aunque el crecimiento no está siendo como se esperaba, los inversores se consuelan con el hecho de que la baja inflación y el crecimiento económico moderado pueden llevar a la Reserva Federal a aumentar los tipos de interés a un ritmo más lento. En este contexto, mantenemos nuestro posicionamiento de inversión inicial
Consideramos que las recientes ganancias pueden continuar, por lo que seguimos sobreponderando la renta variable frente a la renta fija
Seguimos confiando en valores del sector tecnológico. Creemos que los inversores que sobreponderan la renta variable estadounidense deberían reducir su exposición y considerar como opción la renta variable internacional. Dicho esto, volvemos a advertir que es probable que la volatilidad siga siendo elevada

Staying the Course as the Fed Signals Its Direction
M a r c h 2 3 , 2 0 1 5
Seesaw Week Ends on the Upside
U.S. stocks experienced dramatic swings last week, but ended sharply higher.
Leading the major indexes, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.18% to close the
week at 5,026, continuing its push toward its previous record. Meanwhile, the S&P
500 climbed 2.68% to 2,108, within 1% of a new high, and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average rose 2.13% to 18,127. As for bonds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell
from 2.12% to 1.93% as its price correspondingly rose.
Although growth is not materializing as expected, investors are taking solace in the
fact that low inflation and the moderating economic growth may lead the Federal
Reserve (Fed) to increase interest rates at a slower, gentler pace.
When Bad News Is Good News
Given the current backdrop, what is notable is how stocks are advancing. Though
select segments of the economy are performing well, last week’s rally was more a
function of slow growth rather than a booming economy.
Investors started the year with this thesis: U.S. growth would drive company
earnings higher, which in turn would push stocks higher. So far this year, events
have not played to script. Instead, a rising dollar has forced analysts to lower their
forecasts of companies’ earnings, with Tiffany the latest example of an exportdependent
company struggling with a rapidly appreciating currency.
At the same time, the abrupt rise in the dollar has coincided with a slowdown in
U.S. manufacturing and business sentiment, although a brutally cold February and
a West Coast port strike are also to blame. With the notable exception of the labor
market, U.S. economic data are generally running below expectations, to the point
where an index of economic surprises is now at its lowest level since 2009.
However, rather than sell stocks, investors are once again treating bad news as
good. Stocks rallied last Monday following a weak industrial production report,
and investors used Wednesday’s Fed announcement as another excuse to bid up
equities. Despite the removal of the word “patient” from its statement, which
indicated the strong likelihood of higher interest rates this year, investors reacted
positively to the Fed’s comments. While the statement sets the stage for a
normalization in interest rates later this year, the central bank’s recognition of the
recent economic softness was interpreted as a dovish stance.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
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WEEKLY INVESTMENT
COMMENTARY
Investors started the
year with this thesis:
U.S. growth would drive
company earnings higher,
which in turn would push
stocks higher. So far this
year, events have not
played to script.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of March 23, 2015, and
may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing
involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility
of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income
investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market
value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest
payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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We believe the recent
gains can continue and
we would remain
overweight stocks relative
to bonds, which have
underperformed both
domestic and global
equities year-to-date.
Treasuries rallied on the announcement, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury
dipping back below 2%, as equities swung from a loss to a 1% gain. The only loser
last week was the dollar. As investors recalibrated their estimates for an initial
rate hike, the dollar slipped from its recent high, falling roughly 2% on the week.
Sticking With Stocks
Against this backdrop, we are sticking with our main investment positioning.
We believe the recent gains can continue and we would remain overweight
stocks relative to bonds, which have underperformed both domestic and global
equities year-to-date. We still favor technology: The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite is back where it was at the peak of the 2000 bubble, but earnings
growth, not multiple expansion, has been the main driver of the advance. At 30
times trailing earnings, the price-to-earnings ratio on the Nasdaq has not changed
much over the past two years and is still a long way from the 175 times earnings
that marked the top in 2000.
We also continue to believe investors who are overweight U.S. equities should
bring down their exposure and consider international stocks. Even with the recent
rally, the U.S. is still up 2.5% year-to-date versus 18% and 12% (in local currency
terms), respectively, for Europe and Japan.
That said, we’d once again offer an important caveat: Expect volatility to continue
to be high. While U.S. stocks have managed to advance so far this year, the
volatility of daily returns is already 25% higher than it was last year. Expect