Oportunidades en un contexto de rentabilidades bajas

Richard Turnill, Director Mundial de Estrategia de Inversión en BlackRock - Miercoles, 19 de Octubre

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Creemos que los inversores deben asumir más riesgos en activos que ofrecen mayores recompensas en lugar de buscar refugio en activos seguros
Los precios de producción en China subieron por primera vez en casi cinco años, una prueba más del repunte del crecimiento y del desvanecimiento de la deflación
Los datos económicos mostrarán si la presión inflacionista está aumentando en Estados Unidos y en la zona del euro a medida que se desvanece el lastre de los bajos precios del petróleo

Vivimos en un mundo en el que las previsiones de rentabilidades se sitúan en niveles reducidos, tal y como se refleja en nuestras últimas previsiones de rentabilidad con un horizonte a cinco años. Hemos reducido nuestras previsiones sobre las rentabilidades en la mayoría de clases de activos debido al aumento de las valoraciones, pero vemos oportunidades en muchos activos de riesgo.

Muchos inversores han priorizado los activos más seguros en los últimos años. Sin embargo, creemos que el entorno de reactivación económica que parece estar tomando forma premiará la asunción selectiva de riesgos. Desde nuestro punto de vista, los cambios económicos estructurales deberían mantener los rendimientos de los bonos en niveles moderados durante varios años. Esto debería incrementar en términos relativos el atractivo de los activos de riesgo, como la deuda de mercados emergentes y la renta variable global.

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ey points

1We believe investors should take risk where it looks most rewarded rather than seek shelter in perceived safe assets.

2 China’s producer prices rose for the first time in nearly five years, more evidence of growth holding up and deflation fading.

3Economic data will show whether inflationary pressure is building in the U.S. and eurozone, as the drag from low oil prices fades.

1 Opportunities in a low-return landscape

We live in a world of low prospective returns, as reflected in our latest five-year return outlook. We have lowered our return assumptions across most asset classes due to increased valuations, but we see opportunities in many risk assets. Chart of the week BlackRock’s five-year asset class return assumptions, October 2016 6% 4 2 0 -2 Fixed Income Equities Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute and BlackRock Solutions, October 2016. Notes: This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. The bars show annualized nominal return assumptions for the next five years from a U.S. dollar perspective. Representative indexes used are (left to right): Barclays U.S. Long Government Index, Barclays Global Aggregate Treasury Index ex U.S., Barclays Government Index, Barclays U.S. Credit Index, Barclays U.S. Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index, Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index, JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, Barclays U.S. High Yield Index, MSCI USA Index, MSCI USA Small Cap Index, MSCI World ex USA Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Indexes are unmanaged and used for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to be indicative of any fund or strategy’s performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Many investors have favored perceived safer assets in recent years, but we believe a reflationary environment is taking shape that will reward selective risk taking. Structural economic changes should keep bond yields low for many years, in our view. This should make risk assets such as emerging market (EM) bonds and global equities relatively more attractive. See the chart above.

Annualized return assumption

U.S. Treasuries (10+ Years)

Global ex-U.S. Gov. Bonds

U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Investment Grade

U.S. TIPS

U.S. Cash

Emerging Market Debt ($)

U.S. High Yield

U.S. Large Cap Equity

U.S. Small Cap Equity

Global ex-U.S. Equity

Emerging Market Equity

Taking risk where it’s most rewarded

Big structural changes to the world economy — think aging populations and weak productivity growth — along with supply/demand imbalances should keep government bond yields low for many years. This represents a sea change for how investors need to consider diversifying portfolios. For example, we see a global portfolio consisting of 60% equities and 40% bonds generating a nominal annual return of just 3% in U.S. dollar terms over the next five years before fees, based on our asset return assumptions.

With the global economy showing some signs of a reflationary tilt as U.S. growth accelerates, investors aren’t being compensated for the risks tied to many perceived safer assets, we believe. We expect annual returns on government bonds to be near zero and even potentially negative on a five-year horizon.

The takeaway: Investors should focus on assets where they are being better rewarded for the risks entailed, we believe. High valuations and low growth do imply lower returns for risk assets versus history, but risk assets’ returns are still attractive compared to those of safe havens. We see equities overall as relatively attractive in a low-yield world. Other assets offering attractive risk premiums include EM debt. Over the long term, we see more scope for investors to take advantage of the extra risk premiums available in alternative investments, such as real estate and private equity.

2 Week in review

The British pound slid back near 31-year lows on worries about the UK losing market access to the European Union after Brexit. Government bond yield curves steepened. China’s producer price index (PPI) turned positive year over year for the first time in nearly five years, seen as a reflationary shift that is positive for industrial profits. The yuan hit a six-year low against the U.S. dollar, following surprisingly weak Chinese trade data that was inconsistent with other economic reports. Global snapshot Weekly and 12-month performance of selected assets U.S. Large Caps U.S. Small Caps Non-U.S. World Non-U.S. Developed Japan Emerging Asia ex-Japan 2.2% U.S. Treasuries 1.8% 1.4% U.S. TIPS 1.8% 3.2% U.S. Investment Grade 2.9% 3.4% U.S. High Yield 6.1% 2.3% U.S. Municipals 2.0% 2.5% Non-U.S. Developed 0.5% 2.5% EM $ Bonds 5.1% EQUITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS DIV. YIELD BONDS WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS YIELD -1.0% 4.4% 7.0% -0.3% 4.0% 2.5% -1.9% 8.0% 8.3% -0.1% 6.5% 4.6% -1.4% 4.0% 1.4% -0.1% 8.6% 6.9% -1.4% -0.5% -1.1% 0.1% 15.7% 11.2% -1.5% 1.3% 5.6% -0.4% 2.9% 4.2% -1.9% 15.2% 8.1% -1.5% 9.1% 5.4% -2.4% 11.1% 7.6% -0.5% 13.7% 12.7% COMMODITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL Brent Crude Oil $51.95 Euro/USD 1.10 CURRENCIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL 0.0% 39.4% 5.7% -2.0% 1.0% -4.4% Gold Copper $1,251 USD/Yen 104.18 $4,675 Pound/USD 1.22 -0.5% 17.9% 5.6% 1.2% -13.3% -12.3% -2.2% -0.6% -11.8% -2.0% -17.3% -21.2% Source: Bloomberg. As of Oct. 14, 2016. Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury In ation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; U.S. municipals by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversi ed Index. Brent crude oil prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel, gold prices are in U.S. dollar per troy ounce and copper prices are in U.S. dollar per metric ton. The Euro/USD level is represented by U.S. dollar per euro, USD/JPY by yen per U.S. dollar and Pound/USD by U.S. dollar per pound. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Week ahead

Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20 Eurozone September inflation U.S. September consumer price index (CPI) China third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP); U.S. presidential debate European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting Inflation data this week should offer signs as to whether inflationary pressures are growing in the U.S. and eurozone, as the drag from lower oil prices gradually fades. The ECB may provide clues about the monetary policy outlook as investors seek clarity on whether it will extend asset purchases.

Asset class views

Views from a U.S. dollar perspective over a three-month horizon

EQUITIES

ASSET CLASS

VIEW

COMMENTS

U.S.

—

Monetary and scal policy should support economic expansion, but political uncertainty may dampen capex. Valuations remain elevated. We like structural growth stories, dividend growers and quality stocks.

Europe

▼

Post-Brexit uncertainties challenge already poor pro ts. We see only modest prospects for an earnings acceleration despite a supportive ECB. Multinationals should bene t from EM demand. We avoid banks.

Japan

—

EM

Attractive valuations and improved corporate governance are not enough to o set a soft economy and strong yen. The BoJ is nearing the limits of monetary policy.

▲

A stable U.S. dollar, economic reforms, improving corporate fundamentals and reasonable valuations support the asset class, we believe. We also see more room for in ows given light investor positioning.

Asia ex-Japan

▲

Financial sector reform and rising current account surpluses are encouraging. China’s economic transition is ongoing, but we believe lower growth rates are priced in. We like India and selected ASEAN markets.

U.S. Treasuries

—

Fed normalization is likely to be very gradual and easy global monetary policy is supportive. Policy shifts that steepen global yield curves make us cautious of longer- duration bonds.

U.S. Municipals

—

Richer valuations and higher U.S. Treasury yields challenge the near-term outlook. Munis’ tax-exempt income makes them a core holding longer term.

U.S. Credit

▲

We generally prefer investment grade bonds. Yields o er compensation for the risks entailed, such as rising corporate leverage.

European Sovereigns

—

We prefer selected peripheral bond markets due to higher yields and ECB support. An eventual relaxation in the ECB’s self-imposed limits on bond buying should result in steeper yield curves in the eurozone core.

European Credit

▲

The ECB’s corporate bond purchases and a modest BoE purchase program support investment grade credit in Europe. Bonds not eligible for the ECB program also look attractive to us in selected countries.

EM Debt

▲

We have become more selective given rising valuations. We prefer the front end of local markets with room to cut rates further, such as Brazil, and also see opportunities in hard-currency corporates.

Asia Fixed Income

—

We see local currency debt as attractive in Asian economies with a monetary easing bias, including India. In China we are focused on higher-quality issuers.

Commodities and Currencies

—

Supply rationalization is improving our outlook for oil and industrial metals. We like gold as a portfolio diversi er. We see major currencies mostly stable, even as a Fed rate rise could nudge up the U.S. dollar.

FIXED INCOME

OTHER

▲ Overweight — Neutral ▼ Underweight 

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