¿Qué hay en el horizonte para los inversores en 2017?

Natixis Global AM - Martes, 27 de Diciembre

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Qué pueden significar para los mercados en 2017 el mandato de Trump, el auge del populismo en Europa y el posible entorno de aumento de los tipos de interés y el gasto en infraestructura? La gestora de fondos Natixis Global Asset Management ha preguntado a cinco de sus expertos qué hay en el horizonte para los inversores en 2017 en renta variable, renta fija, inversión socialmente responsable, inversiones alternativas y renta variable europea.

informe especial que incluye comentarios de cinco expertos de gestoras afiliadas a Natixis Global AM)

 

• William Nygren, Partner, Equity Manager, Harris Associates- gestora americana especializada en estrategias value
• Elaine Stokes, Fixed-Income Manager, Loomis, Sayles & Company- una de las gestoras americanas más grandes de EEUU con gran reconocimiento en renta fija y renta variable
• Jens Peers, Chief Investment Officer, Sustainable Equities Manager, Mirova- gestora especializada en inversión socialmente responsable
• Duncan Wilkinson, Chief Executive Officer, AlphaSimplex Group- gestora especializada en inversiones alternativas
• Isaac Chebar, European Equity Manager, DNCA Finance- gestora especializada en estrategias de renta variable y de retorno absoluto europeas

• Market Outlook 2017: Top 3 Things on Managers’ Minds

  2016 was certainly the year of surprises – with Brexit and Trump shocking the world. Yet, besides short-lived market sell-offs, global markets were relatively resilient. So what might be on the horizon for investors in 2017?

  Equity, Fixed-Income, Sustainable Investing, Alternative and European Equity managers share their top issues and opportunities, along with a potential market surprise for investing in the new year.

  William Nygren
  Partner, Equity Manager Harris Associates

  1. Anemic growth? For several years, we’ve been anticipating that global growth would return to near the pre- Global Financial Crisis levels. And each year the World Bank started out by projecting that reasonable growth was just around the corner. Then as the year progressed, they had to consistently cut their expectations. Low growth has allowed interest rates to remain at near-zero levels, has allowed commodity prices to remain below prices needed to justify new exploration, and has resulted in the earnings of cyclical companies being below trend.

  2. Growth momentum? If 2017 is finally the year when growth surprises to the upside, it would likely be accompanied by very different sectors leading the stock market. That is why we favor companies that may benefit from rising interest rates (banks and other financial companies), rising commodity prices (energy companies), and higher earnings from industrial cyclicals.

  3. Unknowns of Trump administration. The U.S. political scene will be of key importance in determining whether or not global growth accelerates. Throughout a very nasty presidential campaign, many policies were promised from the prevailing party that were both pro-growth and anti-growth. If the new Trump administration focuses on tax reform and reducing the burden from regulations, the result would likely be a meaningful increase in growth. If instead the focus is on restricting global trade and deporting illegal immigrants, growth would likely decrease. We believe the likelihood is much higher that pro-growth policies will prevail, but would also add that over many years the forces of global growth have proven strong enough to overcome misguided government policies. As long-term investors, we believe the valuations are compelling for the companies that would most benefit from renewed economic strength.

  One surprise that could catch us off guard

  A return to growth could create a very unpleasant surprise for many investors, as investments widely perceived as safe could be riskier than those perceived as risky. Investors tend to look at the risk of a stock as being the potential deviation of earnings from the anticipated level, and pay little attention to price. We have been saying for some time that low-volatility businesses priced at historically high relative P/E ratios are riskier than higher-volatility businesses priced at low relative P/Es. With interest rates so low, the stable, low-growth businesses that pay out a high percentage of profits as dividends have become favorite “bond substitutes” for investors seeking higher yield than is available in the bond market. These companies have typically been priced at lower-than-average P/Es, but today sell at substantial premiums. Even if the businesses perform about as expected, there is substantial risk should the P/E ratios revert to their long-term averages. If interest rates rise, as we expect, then P/E reversion is the likely outcome. This is why we currently find most electric utilities, telecom providers, or U.S.-based consumer packaged goods businesses unattractive.

  Additionally, in a higher interest rate environment, stocks would likely prove less risky than the long-term bonds that investors have bid up to historically low yields. 2017 could be a year that turns investor thinking about risk upside down.

  

  Elaine Stokes Fixed-Income Manager Loomis, Sayles & Company

  As we look forward into the new year, the three things most on my mind are coping, crisis and the credit cycle.

  Across the globe, as populations continue to move down a divisive Nationalist path, we should expect to see people struggling to cope with the realities of a less friendly and accepting world. There are very real tensions and human rights issues being brought to the forefront, leaving a new generation to face hard realities head on. In country after country, we are seeing the extremes gain traction while the middle ground gets hollowed out. This will cause challenges for governing bodies to keep unrest at bay and bring policy focus internal. Is this a healthy environment to spur stronger growth? Are the days of central bank cooperation behind us? Is this the one step back for global trade after two big steps forward over the past few decades?

  We will need to be ever aware of the increasing pressures building within societies as we move away from cooperation and acceptance toward building walls, refocused nation states and cyber everything. With policies leaning protectionist, continued terror threats, border skirmishes erupting, and nation states flexing their muscles while others look inward, miscommunication and misinterpretation of actions are far more likely to happen, as well as the risk of someone acting rogue out of anger. Geopolitical and humanitarian crisis are realities in this environment.

  All of this is in the background for the new slate of policies being thrown at the sluggish economic growth enveloping the developed world. Will this new direction in policy – aggressive fiscal policy – be the answer as we sit in an elongated late cycle environment, or will it prove to be too much too late and push us into a more violent downturn? Just how long will the good times roll and who will get left behind in the crosshairs of new policy?

  Jens Peers
  Chief Investment Officer Portfolio Manager Mirova1

  It’s hard to look at 2017 and not talk about the plans of U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump. With that said, here are my top-of-mind thoughts for sustainable investing in the new year.

  Equities may outperform bonds. Tax cuts and infrastructure spending could boost corporate earnings, job growth and consumer spending. We would expect these three factors to support equity market performance. Simultaneously, they also lead to higher inflation expectations. While inflation also typically has a positive impact on equity markets, it pushes nominal interest rates up and bond prices down. In this environment, we would expect equities to outperform bonds.

  Green bonds growing in importance. For his infrastructure spending, President-Elect Trump’s plans seem to rely heavily on the private sector for funding, mainly via PPPs (Public-Private Partnerships). As project finance is capital intensive and with banks globally being more careful choosing how they allocate their capital, the bond market could play an increasingly important role. Green bonds’ proceeds are used to finance clearly defined projects with a positive environmental impact: climate change mitigation, water quality, biodiversity, etc. While climate change may not be very high on Trump’s agenda, other areas such as water, efficient electricity transmission and efficient transportation via railroads are certainly part of the infrastructure plans, which could help Green bonds to continue their growth in popularity.

  Prudence is warranted. In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, cyclical, infrastructure-exposed equities have performed strongly as investors anticipated higher economic growth for longer and increased infrastructure spending. It will take a while, however, before details of this new spending will be known and even longer before companies will see this translated into earnings. There is a risk of disappointment during the next few quarterly earnings expectations.

  The importance of thematic thinking. Urbanization, globalization and digitalization are important trends that for many of us have had a huge influence on how we live today. While those trends are expected to continue, for many others in our society, they are happening too fast. The different needs of millennials versus an aging population create further short-term tension on the political and economic front. The recent pull back in tech and health-related stocks may provide a good longer-term investment opportunity, especially in areas related to personalized medicine, treatment of age-related diseases and elderly care.

  

  Utilities the positive surprise? As inflation expectations picked up, long-term interest rates rose during the first few weeks after the U.S. presidential election. As a result, typical bond proxies, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs) and utilities, underperformed the broader equity market. U.S. utilities could be some of the main beneficiaries, however, of what seems to be driving investors these days: corporate tax cuts (as they are typically 100% U.S. exposed), increased infrastructure spending with opportunities in water and electricity transmission (smart grid) and increasing inflation (as water and energy prices are usually inflation-adjusted).

  Duncan Wilkinson Chief Executive Officer AlphaSimplex Group

  Rising interest rates. Don’t look now, but U.S. Treasury yields actually seem like they are rising.
  While things began to change in October, it was the U.S. presidential election on November 8 that really triggered a rather sudden and sharp increase in the U.S. 10-year yield. Is this the bottom for Treasury yields and the beginning of a steady increase in yields? It is too early to tell. However, it is a good example of how a trend can form based on new fundamental information.

  If interest rates continue to rise in 2017, long positions in bonds will be challenged, and portfolios that have the ability to go short bonds may have an advantage in such an environment. Investors have benefited from a strong 30-year cyclical decline in interest rates; however, that will probably not be the wind at their backs in 2017 as it has been in recent history, and instead, it could potentially be a strong headwind.

  Rising equity risk and volatility. At AlphaSimplex, we have our own measure of downside equity risk called the Downside Risk Index (DRI). * Currently, that measure for global equity risk is elevated, above average, although not at extreme levels for international and emerging market stocks, and about average for U.S. stocks. This may seem counter-intuitive given that stocks have delivered modest gains so far this year and since there was not an extreme negative market reaction to the U.S. election results.

  As we look back at 2016, the first quarter was a roller coaster ride for stocks as the world became concerned about the slowdown in China’s growth. While almost a year has passed, it is fair to say the health of the Chinese economy continues to be a global risk with a new wildcard, which is the direction of the United States and China trade relations. We also had concerns about the European recovery, complicated in part by the complexity of immigration and a refugee crisis. And let’s not forget the Brexit vote, which, similar to the U.S. election, added a pint of uncertainty to the world order.

  Volatility of regulatory change. We often talk about the volatility of stocks, and we are typically referring to the standard deviations of returns over some period (e.g., a month, a year). We have a mathematically defined measure of volatility for stocks, which allows us to have a reference, based on hard numbers that we can compare to historical averages to know when volatility is high or low. While we do not have any such measure of the volatility of regulatory change, I think it is fair to say that if we did, it just spiked to extreme levels.

  There are a number of regulatory changes that have been implemented during the Obama administration and many that were far along the regulatory pipeline. This includes everything from big financial regulations, such as the Dodd- Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to broader regulations that have financial impacts, such as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposal on derivatives and the new liquidity rule, as well as Department of Labor rules on fiduciary standards. Will these regulations be repealed and replaced by the Trump administration? Will they just be tweaked a bit? Will some just die a quiet death in the rule-making process? Will one be implemented only to trigger the elimination of two more regulations?

  It is too soon to know for certain. However, as the new administration begins to fill open positions, such as SEC commissioners and Treasury Secretary, each new bit of information will lead to speculation – some of which may indicate change, and some of which may signal less change than anticipated. This juxtaposition is something that I think we have learned is part of the Trump style. This speculation back and forth, and the implications on the markets, is what I would define as Regulatory Volatility (or “RegVol”), and I would say it has never been higher.

  

  Isaac Chebar
  European Equity Manager DNCA Finance

  Will 2017 be the year of all dangers? One might think so after listening to all of the commentary on doomsday scenarios and the malfunction of Europe.

  Certainly there are a lot of unknowns today. Elections in two of the main euro-zone economies, France and Germany. Extremist, populist political parties all over the place mocking the euro. Deficits under control but at the cost of high disparities between North and South. Obviously, visibility of the market’s direction is reduced. But when has the equity market ever been 100% clear?

  Looking out at the European landscape, a few constructive thoughts come to mind:

• If there is a place where taxes can be reduced, it’s Europe. Countries with high unemployment rates like Spain,

  Italy and France might surprise all with a genuine supply-side approach.

• Infrastructure budgets are being boosted in the developed world and Europe might not want to be left behind.

• Consumer confidence is still at high levels considering events (terrorist attacks, banking problems in Italy,

  Deutsche Bank fears, Italy referendum, Brexit). This could be a sign of better things to come.

• Companies have relentlessly reduced operating costs in Europe. Credit growth earmarked for investment is

  starting to pick up, thanks to European Central Bank (ECB) liquidity easing and credit availability. A weak euro combined with still very low interest rates may provide a powerful combination under better economic conditions.

  Corporations could benefit from the above conditions, as well as a more flexible labor market. Consumer spending will probably lag much of the year, but lower unemployment and some wage growth in early 2018 could be a second kicker in this European “growth revival”. Of course, thinking this on the eve of the important Italian referendum (scheduled for December 4) may appear wishful.

  Even if Italians vote “No”, which would lead to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and weaken the euro cause, things take time and many steps. Everybody feared the election of Donald Trump. But the markets have rallied well (for sure exaggerated as we still need to see his actions). In France, elections are still open through April, but as of yesterday there is a clear right-wing (Les Republicains) candidate, Francois Fillon, with a credible economic plan to face off against and possibly defeat the populist (Front National) candidate Marine Le Pen.

  We still have hurdles to pass in Europe. But step by step we might get there. And what about the Brexit? Can it be reversed? This would be a big surprise that could catch us off guard. But, What If....?

  1Mirova, a subsidiary of Natixis Asset Management, operates in the U.S. through Natixis Asset Management U.S., LLC.

  * The Downside Risk Index (DRI) is a proprietary index designed by AlphaSimplex to reflect the recent downside volatility of equity markets. Here, downside volatility is a measure of the extent to which recent volatility in an equity market’s daily returns has resulted from negative price moves (as opposed to volatility resulting from positive price moves). The DRI can range from 0 to 100, and higher values indicate that the recent level of downside volatility has been high relative to historically observed levels of downside volatility. The DRI is not a prediction of future returns or volatilities of equity markets and investors should not rely on this index when making investment decisions.

  Commodity is a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold, such as copper or coffee.

• 

  Brexit refers to Britain voting on a referendum June 23, 2016 to exit the European Union, which is a unique economic

  

  and political partnership between 28 European countries.

  

  Credit is a contractual agreement in which a borrower receives something of value now and agrees to repay the lender

  

  at some date in the future, generally with interest.

  

  Cyclicals refer to securities

  whose price is affected by ups and downs in the overall economy.

  

  Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008

  is considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis

  

  since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

  

  Green Bonds are debt instruments whose proceeds are used exclusively to fund qualifying green investments in

  projects such as energy efficiency, transport, water, waste management, land use or adaptation infrastructure. They

  are similar to traditional bonds in terms of deal structure, but they have different requirements for reporting, auditing

  and proceed allocations.

  Easing is a monetary policy used by a central bank to stimulate an economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective.

  

  Euro i

  s the official currency of the euro zone, which consists of 19 of the 28 member states of the European Union.

  Operating costs are expenses associated with the maintenance and administration of a business on a day-to-day

  

  basis.

  

  P/E Ratio or t

  he Price-to-Earnings Ratio is a ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price

  

  relative to its per-share earnings.

  

  Populism refers to a political party claiming to represent the common people.
  Short Position is the sale of a borrowed security with the expectation that the asset will fall in value.

  Standard Deviation is a statistical measure that sheds light on historical volatility. Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time.
  Yield is the income return on an investment.

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  Rising rate

  environment refers to the climate of financial markets during a period when interest rates are increasing.

  World Bank (WB) is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital

  

  programs.

  

  

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