¿Qué significa el envejecimiento de la población para la economía, los mercados financieros…

Por primera vez en la historia, la población mayor de 65 años podría superar a la menor de 5 años a nivel mundial. ¿Qué significa el envejecimiento de la población para la economía, los mercados financieros globales, el sector de la salud y los inversores? Cuatro expertos de las gestoras afiliadas a Natixis Global Asset Management (Natixis Global AM) responden a esta pregunta en el comentario que te adjunto sobre el impacto del envejecimiento de la población en los mercados a nivel mundial.

Aging population changing global market dynamics
Age may soon be more than just a number. For the first time in history, and probably for the rest of human history, people age 65 and over will soon outnumber children under age five worldwide.1
What might this aging population trend mean for economies, global financial markets, the healthcare sector and investors? How large can the silver economy grow? A diverse group of investment professionals from across Natixis Global Asset Management share their insight.
Jens Peers, CIO, Sustainable Equities
Mirova
Longevity and aging populations are likely to have an enormous influence on most advanced economies over the coming decades. The fact that baby boomers are on the cusp of retirement will also have a huge impact on the shape of our economies, positively and negatively. The cost of an aging population can weigh heavily on public and private support systems for older persons. On the other hand, an aging population could also be an engine for economic growth. Older people live and spend differently than younger people. They also have different needs. The silver economy is becoming increasingly large. This part of the economy is expected to account for 50% of U.S. and Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) by the 2030s.1 That said, the areas of healthcare, consumption and finance could provide good investment opportunities.
Healthcare demand rising
As the group of over 65 continues to grow, it is clear that there are a lot of opportunities in this area. There is a strong link between aging and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes. Heart diseases and cancer are now two of the main causes of death. Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s are two other age-related conditions for which we still don’t have a solution. Medical devices also provide an area of strong growth, as they are primarily intended for the old. The average age for a hip replacement in the U.S. for instance is 64, while for a first-time hearing aid it is 69.2 On the latter, 35%–40% of the total 65+ population is estimated to be hearing impaired. Yet only 10%–25% use a hearing aid. Other healthcare-related opportunities can be found in reading glasses, dental care, retirement homes, etc.2
Shifts in spending
As people get older, their spending patterns change. Spending on discretionary items falls, with a bigger share moving toward staples and leisure. There is a growing awareness of health and wellness, which also affects spending. The need to look and feel younger is also a major driver of demand for skin care products, with older people willing to pay a premium for those products. Not only what we buy is affected by our age; also how and where we buy changes as we get older. Large out-of-town stores become less appealing as convenience and proximity gains in importance. Even the Internet could benefit. Over-55s have been slow adopters of online applications, but this age group has been one of the fastest-growing groups in terms of online penetration over the last few years. Other opportunities could be found in the refurbishment and adaptations of existing homes to an older life and the need for re-education as technology is changing the nature of many types of jobs and as retirement ages get extended due to pressures on social security systems.
Elderly financing
Finally, longevity is also a risk for our financial system. Especially providers of annuities and pensions could be under pressure if they have to make payments for longer than anticipated. In countries where people depend heavily on the government for the provision of their pension, longevity will have an enormous impact on government finance. It is now clear that people will need to provide more of their income themselves, which should boost demand for life insurance and asset management products. Other innovative solutions such as reverse mortgages could also benefit. The search for additional income could also boost demand for high-dividend stocks, supporting their valuation.
David Lafferty, Chief Market Strategist
Natixis Global Asset Management
The post-WWII baby boom has been just that – a boom for global consumption. The 76 million U.S. citizens born between 1946 and 1964, along with a commensurate number around the world, reached their prime earning and
consumption years in the 1980s through the early 2000s. In the developed world, saving for retirement became
the principal investment goal. In the U.S., this endeavor was aided by the creation of tax-deferred savings
accounts – notably the IRA and the 401(k) plan – in the mid-1980s.
Baby boomers in their “accumulation phase” fueled inflows into these newly created retirement accounts and
supported the rapid expansion of the mutual fund industry. Because they were saving for retirement, the lion’s
share of the flows went into equities. Now, as the population of those over age 65 increases by about 10,000
Americans each day, this same cohort needs to cope with the exigencies of the “distribution phase.” No longer
primarily accumulators, boomers’ new goal will be to find assets that pay income, and this trend will have
significant effects on the capital markets.
Built-in demand for income
The demand for income is likely to put upward pressure on bond prices – and downward pressure on yields that
are already at historic lows. In the long run, we believe yields will rise, but baby boom demand will create a
“constant bid” for any asset that’s an income generator. Against that demographic backdrop, the long-anticipated
increase in rates may well be more gradual and take longer than expected. Bond sell-offs are likely to be met with
strong demand as yield-starved investors jump in, so the move to higher interest rates will come in fits and starts.
We got a glimpse of this in early August when the sell-off in high-yield bonds lasted less than a month.
The same principles apply to other income-producing asset classes as well: think dividend-paying stocks, real
estate investment trusts (REITs), preferred stocks and Managed Limited Partnerships (MLPs). In today’s low-yield
world, all income-producing assets are expensive, and that’s unlikely to change until after the last boomers turn 65
in 2029.
Jeanne Gilchrist, Global Equity Analyst
Loomis, Sayles & Company
We only need to think about our own parents, our grandparents, or ourselves to realize that as the body ages, it
begins to wear down – which means more doctor visits, more medicine and an overall higher utilization of
healthcare services and equipment. This increase in overall utilization will present future global challenges, but will
also offer opportunities.
While it is difficult to analyze these opportunities in global terms, given the extreme differences country by country
in terms of regulation and reimbursement, we see some broad areas in healthcare that will benefit from this aging
population trend, including pharmaceutical/biotechnology companies, generic/biosimilar drug makers and
healthcare facilities/hospitals.
Pharma/biotech
While drug pricing is a constant topic of debate, oral and injectable medicines are still one of the best ways to offer
affordable treatment, compared to hospitalization costs, or prevention on a global basis. With heart disease,
cancer and diabetes major causes of death in older populations, we look to drug makers who have the potential to
bring innovative new drugs to market and have global distribution capabilities. Companies like Novartis (heart
disease treatments), Novo Nordisk (diabetes) and Bristol Myers (oncology) not only offer existing products which
serve an aging population, but also have compelling pipeline opportunities to serve this population into the future.
The risk of dementias like Alzheimer's disease rises sharply with age. While effective medical treatments for
Alzheimer's remain elusive and the risks to success are high, companies are making progress in research and
development. Pharmaceutical companies with extensive investment in this area include Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Roche.
(Views on companies should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.)
The holy grail of drug development is a cure for disease. Gilead Sciences is in the process of delivering almost a
100% cure to those afflicted with chronic hepatitis C in a one-pill, once-a-day formulation over an eight-week
duration. Even in the United States, before Gilead’s innovation, treatment was onerous on the patient, with much
lower rates of cure. And given that the blood supply in the United States was not screened until 1992 (hepatitis C
is a blood-borne virus), baby boom adults have a higher risk of disease. In the U.S. alone, it is estimated that over
3 million persons are chronically infected.
Generics
On average, individuals 60 to 69 years old take nearly 14 prescriptions per year and individuals aged 80 to 84 take
an average of 18 prescriptions per year. Today in the U.S., seniors represent about 13% of the population, but
consume 40% of prescription drugs and 35% of all over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration. Because branded drugs lose exclusivity (patents vary by country and not all drugs are “easy” to copy) anywhere from 5 to 15 years from launching in a market, there are high opportunities for generic drug makers who produce high-quality product with a compelling value proposition. Global scale is a major advantage, in addition to effective global distribution. Companies include Novartis (Sandoz division), Mylan Labs, Sanofi and Aspen Pharmacare. (Views on companies should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.)
Tara Gately, CFA®, Global Equity Research Analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company, also contributed to this report.
Chris Wallis, President & CEO
Vaughan Nelson Investment Management
The aging population is one of the more powerful global trends. Over the next five, ten and twenty years it is going to create distinct winners and losers across the healthcare spectrum – from healthcare providers to equipment manufacturers.
I don’t see any single, distinct sector of healthcare having a commanding advantage. I believe it’s really going to be very company- and stock-specific. Companies that strategically position themselves for the opportunities in front of them will potentially do well.
There is definitely a lot of change going on in the healthcare industry, and anytime there’s change and uncertainty you’re presented with potential opportunities as an investor. For example, there is currently a lot of uncertainty as to what is going to happen to price and margins for both medical equipment and healthcare services firms. The key point to focus on is that volume is going to increase as the population gets older. The volume of patients and procedures around the globe will increase considerably. Therefore, I think that companies who can either leverage this volume growth, or have made the strategic investments to own distinct parts of the supply chain or an area of the market and can protect their pricing, should do quite well as the population grows older.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
1 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
2 National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
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