“Relajación cuantitativa: el aspecto positivo de la ralentización del crecimiento”

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock - Miercoles, 22 de Abril

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La semana pasada fue complicada para la renta variable debido al aumento de indicios que muestran que el crecimiento económico no se está acelerando al ritmo esperado. Los temores renovados sobre el futuro de Grecia también contribuyeron a los acontecimientos registrados en el mercado la semana pasada. El débil crecimiento mundial representa un obstáculo preocupante para la renta variable, sobre todo en Estados Unidos, donde las expectativas siguen siendo altas. Sin embargo, como ha sido el caso durante buena parte de los últimos seis años, el crecimiento lento y los estímulos monetarios destinados a combatirlo están beneficiando a algunos mercados y perjudicando a otros. En el caso de China, la ralentización del crecimiento tiene una cara positiva: un mayor estímulo monetario y presupuestario. Los inversores europeos también han contado con el apoyo de estos dos estímulos. Entre los beneficiarios de este contexto se encuentran muchas empresas del sector financiero, aunque no todas

QE: The Silver Lining of Slower Growth

april 20, 2015

Stocks Struggle Amid More Signs of Sluggish Growth 

Stocks struggled last week amid more evidence that economic growth is not 

accelerating as expected. In the United States, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.99% to 

2,081, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.28% to 17,826, and the Nasdaq 

Composite Index lost 1.30% to close the week at 4,931. As for bonds, the yield on 

the 10-year Treasury fell from 1.95% to 1.87% as its price correspondingly rose. 

Renewed worries over the future of Greece also contributed to last week’s market 

action. But sluggish global growth represents the nagging headwind for stocks, 

particularly in the United States where expectations remain high. However, as 

has been the case for most of the past six years, slow growth and the monetary 

stimulus intended to combat it are benefiting some markets—and hurting others. 

Consumers Saving, Not Spending

Last week brought more evidence of what is shaping up to be a very soft start to the 

year for the U.S. economy. Despite a sharp advance in consumer sentiment, retail 

sales in March once again disappointed, leaving adjusted retail sales up just 1.3% 

year-over-year, the slowest rate of increase since 2009. 

Rising wages and cheaper oil prices should be supporting sales, but Americans are 

being more conservative than in past cycles; instead of spending more, they are 

saving more. In February, the savings rate rose to 5.8%, the highest since 2012. 

And the softness was not limited to the consumer. Both industrial production, 

which contracted by 0.6% in March, and housing starts were below estimates. 

The persistent softness in U.S. economic data has led economists to lower their 

estimates for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1.4%, down from 

3% as recently as November. Growth should rebound in the second quarter, but the 

United States will struggle to hit the 3% growth rate that investors expected at the 

beginning of the year. Another implication of the slowing growth: It suggests that 

earnings estimates for the year may still be too high.

The situation in the world’s second-largest economy, China, is also one of diminished 

expectations. First quarter growth in China decelerated to 7%, the slowest pace in 

six years. And in many ways, that statistic understates the slowdown. Fixed asset 

investment slowed to a 14-year low, while retail sales, which are expected to 

compensate for a slower rate of investment, fell to a nine-year low.

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