“Se perfilan sorpresas en materia de crecimiento mundial en el horizonte”

Richard Turnill, Director Mundial de Estrategia de Inversión en BlackRock.  - Martes, 20 de Septiembre

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Nuestro nuevo indicador económico apunta a sorpresas positivas sobre crecimiento en el horizonte. Por otro lado, hemos revisado hasta neutra nuestra visión a corto plazo sobre los bonos municipales de Estados Unidos
Las fluctuaciones diarias entre las acciones y los bonos estadounidenses vienen presentando últimamente una correlación poco habitual, lo que refleja retos a corto plazo en cuanto a diversificación
Creemos que la Reserva Federal estadounidense (Fed) mantendrá su política este mes, aunque vemos muy probable que se produzca una subida de tipos a finales de año

No prevemos que el crecimiento de la economía mundial sea tan anémico como estima la opinión de consenso. ¿Por qué? Nuestro nuevo indicador BlackRock Macro GPS apunta a posibles sorpresas positivas en cuanto a crecimiento en el horizonte.

 

La línea azul en el gráfico anterior refleja las estimaciones de consenso sobre el crecimiento del PIB del G7 en los próximos doce meses. Nuestro indicador GPS (la línea verde superior) representa dónde podrían situarse las estimaciones de consenso en tres meses. Así, el GPS sugiere que las actuales estimaciones de consenso sobre crecimiento podrían ser demasiado pesimistas, lo que podría despertar la predisposición al riesgo de los inversores.

 

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Key points

1Our new economic indicator implies positive growth surprises ahead. Separately, we have cut our short-term view of U.S. munis to neutral.

2Daily moves between U.S. stocks and bonds have become unusually correlated lately, highlighting near-term diversification challenges.

3We see the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold this month but believe a late 2016 interest rate increase is very likely.

1 Global growth surprises ahead

We don’t expect global economic growth to be as soft as consensus estimates. Why? Our new BlackRock Macro GPS indicator implies positive growth surprises may be on the horizon. Chart of the week BlackRock Macro GPS, 2015-2016 2.5% 2 1.5 G7 GPS Jan. 2015 G7 consensus Jan. 2016 July 2015 Sept. 2016 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute and Consensus Economics, September 2016. Notes: The green GPS line shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecasts may stand in three months' time for the G7 economies. The blue line shows the current 12-month forward consensus GDP forecasts for the G7 economies, as measured by Consensus Economics, a survey firm. GDP stands for gross domestic product. The G7 countries are the U.S., UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. The blue line in the chart above shows consensus estimates for G7 gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next 12 months. Our GPS indicator (the green line above) represents where consensus estimates could be in three months’ time. The GPS suggests current consensus growth estimates may be too pessimistic, potentially helping underpin investor risk appetite.

12-month ahead GDP growth

Tracking growth surprises

The BlackRock Investment Institute’s research team led by Jean Boivin and BlackRock’s Scientific Active Equity team co-developed the new Macro GPS to gauge how growth expectations could develop over the next three months — a key driver of financial markets. “Nowcasting” models for estimating GDP generally use traditional macroeconomic data. The GPS goes further by also incorporating big data insights, from Internet searches and corporate conference call transcripts to traffic patterns.

Country-specific GPS indicators show the recent deterioration in consensus expectations may have gone too far in the U.S., Japan, Germany and Italy. This suggests potential upside surprises. The UK GPS implies that UK growth expectations should stabilize, with weakness in the big data component offsetting stronger traditional indicators. Overall, the G7 GPS has softened since June’s Brexit vote, but it shows the global recovery should grind on with better-than-expected, if still-sluggish, growth.

Bottom line: Growth surprises could provide a boost to risk appetite in the months ahead, keeping a 2016 Fed rate increase in play. That could also lead to higher long-term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve. We prefer credit over duration. Separately, we have downgraded our short-term view of U.S. municipal bonds to neutral due to richer valuations and higher Treasury yields.

2 Week in review

Global stocks slid as a rise in long-term bond yields rattled investors. The sell-off hit emerging market equities and currencies. Equity volatility jumped from low levels. The one-month correlation between the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries neared decade-highs as both stock and bond prices fell. China released a spate of better-than-expected August data that showed the country’s housing boom and government-led spending are supporting growth. U.S. August retail sales disappointed. Global snapshot Weekly and 12-month performance of selected assets U.S. Large Caps U.S. Small Caps Non-U.S. World Non-U.S. Developed Japan Emerging Asia ex-Japan 2.2% U.S. Treasuries 1.7% 1.4% U.S. TIPS 1.7% 3.2% U.S. Investment Grade 2.9% 3.4% U.S. High Yield 6.5% 2.4% U.S. Municipals 1.8% 2.6% Non-U.S. Developed 0.5% 2.5% EM $ Bonds 5.2% EQUITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS DIV. YIELD BONDS WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS YIELD 0.5% 4.7% 7.2% -0.1% 4.4% 4.9% 0.5% 9.0% 5.8% -0.2% 5.9% 5.9% -2.5% 3.4% 1.9% -0.3% 8.1% 8.6% -2.5% -0.7% -0.9% -0.6% 13.7% 8.2% -2.2% 0.3% 5.9% -0.4% 3.8% 6.4% -2.6% 13.6% 10.2% -0.5% 11.5% 9.8% -2.5% 10.8% 11.7% -1.1% 13.1% 12.6% COMMODITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL Brent Crude Oil $45.77 Euro/USD 1.12 CURRENCIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL -4.7% 22.8% -8.0% -0.7% 2.7% -1.2% Gold Copper $1,310 USD/Yen 102.29 $4,788 Pound/USD 1.30 -1.3% 23.5% 17.0% -0.4% -14.9% -15.2% 3.3% 1.8% -11.0% -2.0% -11.8% -16.1% Source: Bloomberg. As of Sept. 16, 2016. Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury In ation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; U.S. municipals by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversi ed Index. Brent crude oil prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel, gold prices are in U.S. dollar per troy ounce and copper prices are in U.S. dollar per metric ton. The Euro/USD level is represented by U.S. dollar per euro, USD/JPY by yen per U.S. dollar and Pound/USD by U.S. dollar per pound. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Week ahead

Sept. 21 Fed statement and quarterly forecasts; Bank of Japan (BoJ) statement; Japan August trade data Sept. 23 Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI flash (September); Markit eurozone manufacturing PMI flash (September); Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI flash (September) The main focus this week will be monetary policy announcements from the Fed and BoJ. The Bank of England held rates steady last week but left the door open for further rate cuts in 2016. We see the Fed on hold this month but think a late 2016 interest rate increase is still very much on the table. The Fed is also set to update its Summary of Economic Projections, including its forecasts for policy rates. These projections should provide clues on the odds of a December move and the Fed’s views on the long-term level of growth and short-term rates, a subject of recent policymaker debate. For the BoJ, the focus will be on any changes to its quantitative easing program, especially long-term bond purchases.

Asset class views

Views from a U.S. dollar perspective over a three-month horizon

ASSET CLASS

VIEW

COMMENTS

U.S.

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Consumption and labor markets are strong, but valuations are elevated. Further gains require a meaningful improvement in earnings. We like dividend growers and quality stocks.

Europe

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ECB stimulus is supportive, but post-Brexit uncertainty challenges already poor pro ts. A weak pound helps UK exporters; we are cautious on UK domestic stocks and European banks.

Japan

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Attractive valuations and better corporate governance are not enough to o set a soft economy and rising yen. The BoJ is nearing the limits of monetary policy; structural reforms are needed.

EM

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A stable U.S. dollar, economic reform momentum, and improving corporate fundamentals support the asset class. We see further room for in ows given reasonable valuations and light investor positioning.

Asia ex-Japan

Financial sector reform and rising current account surpluses are encouraging. China’s economic transition is ongoing, but we believe lower growth rates are priced in. We like India and ASEAN markets.

U.S. Treasuries

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A Fed on hold and easy global monetary policy o er support near term. Long- maturity bonds have a structural bid amid low rates and are diversi ers.

U.S. Municipals

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Richer valuations and higher U.S. Treasury yields challenge the near-term outlook. Munis’ tax-exempt income makes them a core holding longer term.

U.S. Credit

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We generally prefer investment-grade bonds. Yields o er compensation for the risks entailed, such as rising corporate leverage.

DM ex-U.S. Fixed Income

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The ECB and BoE corporate QE programs could push credit spreads tighter, but we are turning more cautious. We like tech and pharma corporate debt, and selected sovereigns in the eurozone’s periphery.

EM Debt

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We prefer high yield hard-currency debt, but are cautious on commodity exporters. We like local-currency debt in Brazil, India and Indonesia for those who can stomach volatility.

Commodities

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Commodity markets are oversupplied. Oil fundamentals have improved, but we see much of this as priced in. We like gold as a portfolio diversi er.

EQUITIES

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

▲ Overweight — Neutral ▼ Underweight 

 

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