¿Se verán afectadas las acciones de empresas minoristas por el parón del consumo?

La renta variable sigue viéndose impulsada por dos tendencias relacionadas entre sí: la divergencia en las políticas monetarias y la fortaleza del dólar. Estas dos tendencias han hecho que la rentabilidad de las acciones estadounidenses sea inferior en comparación con otras regiones
Las exportaciones estadounidenses se están viendo afectadas por la fortaleza del dólar. Además, se añade el problema de que las valoraciones en Estados Unidos no son tan atractivas como las de otros mercados desarrollados. Algunos inversores han reaccionado centrándose en empresas de orientadas al consumo interno y, si bien se trata de una estrategia sensata, la debilidad de las ventas minoristas provoca dudas sobre si el consumo se recuperará con tanta fuerza como los inversores esperan. Las acciones de consumo se han revalorizado debido a la esperanza de los inversores de que se dé un repunte en el gasto.  Si este repunte no se materializa pronto, podría ser, una vez más, un buen momento para retirarse de este sector

Will Retail Stocks Be Arrested Amid Consumer Hold-Up? March 16, 2015 A Tale of Two Trends Stocks in the U.S. tumbled last week, with the exception of a one-day rebound on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.60% to 17,749, the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.87% to 2,053, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.14% to close at 4,871. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 2.25% to 2.12% as its price correspondingly rose. Equity markets continue to be driven by two interconnected trends: diverging monetary policy and a stronger dollar. The recent underperformance in U.S. equities is largely a function of these two dynamics, along with more expensive valuations. Some investors are reacting by focusing on domestic consumer stocks, and while this is a reasonable strategy, sluggish retail sales call into question whether or not the consumer will rebound as strongly as investors hope. Dollar Surge: Too Much of a Good Thing? With the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing program now in full swing and investors anticipating a greater likelihood of a June rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the dollar’s ascent is accelerating. (The ECB’s bond buying lowers yields in Europe, increasing demand for U.S. securities and thereby raising the value of the dollar versus the euro.) The Dollar Index is now at a 12-year high, up roughly 25% from last year’s lows. In contrast, U.S. stocks are essentially flat year-to-date. This is no coincidence. While a cheaper currency is proving a boon for European and Japanese companies, the stronger dollar is creating a problem for U.S. exporters. The latest victim is Intel, which cut its current quarter revenue estimate by roughly $1 billion last week. A stronger dollar was cited as a contributing factor. Adding to the challenge, the headwind on U.S. earnings is occurring at a time when U.S. valuations are expensive relative to other developed markets. The S&P 500 Index is trading at nearly three times book value, versus 1.67 for Europe and 1.75 for Japan. Without the tailwind of further multiple expansion—that is, investors paying more for each dollar of earnings, something that is harder to achieve with the Fed set to start raising interest rates—the market is left relying on earnings growth, where the rapid rise of the dollar is proving an impediment