Sigue la cura de adelgazamiento. Principalmente, en los bancos

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Viernes, 24 de Febrero

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La Comisión Europea publicó el miércoles la valoración, en su opinión, de los progresos realizados por los diferentes países hacia sus prioridades económicas y sociales...

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-308_en.htm

Les dejo aquí las principales conclusiones del Informe sobre España. Literalmente...

The Spanish economy continues to enjoy a strong recovery and is moving towards a more balanced composition of growth than before the crisis. In its third year of expansion, Spanish real GDP is almost back to its 2008 pre-crisis peak. The recovery was initially led by exports, helped by a reversal of the cost- competitiveness losses accumulated in the pre-crisis years. It then gradually broadened to the domestic sector. Since 2015, high job creation, low oil prices and improving financing conditions have boosted consumer spending. Investment in equipment has also been growing strongly, while investment in construction has started to recover. The current-account balance maintains a surplus position.

Growth is expected to slow, but remain robust. Spain’s ambitious structural reforms in recent years laid the ground for the strong economic recovery, but favourable conditions also helped. As oil prices pick up, and assuming geopolitical tensions in competing tourist destinations subside, Spain's external balance may worsen. Furthermore, no further significant cost-competitiveness gains are expected as productivity growth remains modest and wage growth resumes. Domestic demand is set to lose vigour as falling prices, the tax cuts implemented in 2015-2016, and the improvement in financing conditions no longer provide a boost. Overall, real GDP growth is expected to moderate but remain robust, at 2.3 % in 2017 and 2.1 % in 2018.

The legacy of the crisis has not yet been fully overcome, and significant challenges remain. Spain has undertaken a substantial economic
adjustment, but the stock of imbalances leaves the economy vulnerable. Private sector debt continued to decrease, supported by a healthier financial sector, but public sector debt has not been reduced, resulting in a slow reduction of the very high level of external debt. Although unemployment has been falling rapidly, it remains very high, and both poverty and income inequality are among the highest in the EU.

Interesante sin duda este gráfico, donde se observa la evolución de la deuda acumulada por sectores de la economía española...

Sin duda, el proceso de desapalancamiento continúa. Aunque en el caso del sector privado, está ya muy desarrollado.
Y especialmente en el caso de los bancos.

¿Y qué dice el Informe de las entidades de crédito españolas?

The financial sector has continued to show a high degree of stability, supported by its ongoing restructuring, low funding costs and the economic recovery. The banking system further strengthened its capital buffers and the six largest Spanish banks comfortably met their
capital requirements in the EBA stress tests of July 2016. The aggregate non-performing loan ratio fell to just above 9% in November 2016. As elsewhere in Europe, squeezed profitability, against the background of low interest rates and remaining scope to further improve the sector's business model, is the main challenge. The outstanding volume of credit is still falling, but bank lending to firms, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises, and consumer credit have resumed, supporting economic activity.

Naturalmente, siempre sería deseable que el ajuste de la morosidad fuera más rápido. Pero estamos hablando de una provisión ya efectuada del 15 % del crédito total. Y un ritmo de caída de la cifra de morosidad del 14 % anual.
Lo relevante, con todo, es lo que nos muestra el segundo gráfico. Y aquí hablamos de la importancia del sector financiero español para la economía, por encima de la media europea. Financia crecimiento y la innovación... 

¿Hay cuestiones pendientes? Naturalmente, siempre las hay. Pero, es cierto, en el caso de los ajustes y desequilibrios existentes en España antes de la Crisis el sector financiero está muy avanzado en su corrección. Y esto le deja preparado para financiar el crecimiento. Pero esto ya lo estamos viendo. 

José Luis Martínez Campuzano es portavoz de la Asociación Española de Banca

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