Sobre la reforma fiscal de fin de año y la rotación en las materias primas (AXA IM)

Year-end tax reform and commodity rotation Equity market monthly review §  Global equities gained 1.6% over December with the UK (+5%), emerging markets (EMs) (+2.6%) and commodity sectors (+4% to 5%) outperforming in line with the rally in energy and industrial metal prices.

§  Strong returns in 2017 were largely driven by earnings per share (EPS) growth across most regions. Markets saw a rapid year-end rotation driven by the tax reform in the US – from stocks with low effective tax rates to high effective tax rates – and from growth to value.

§  US bond yield cycles since 1980 suggest that equity markets have moved higher in most periods of rising yields, suggesting that gradually increasing yields, are not an imminent threat in a healthy macro environment.