“Tendencias subyacentes”

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock  - Miercoles, 25 de Febrero

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Durante gran parte de la semana pasada, los bonos y acciones estadounidenses registraron una evolución plana, pero la renta variable logró alcanzar un nuevo máximo el viernes tras las noticias de un posible acuerdo entre Grecia y el Eurogrupo para ampliar el rescate al país heleno otros cuatro meses. Los inversores pasaron casi toda la semana pasada sopesando qué decisión tomará la Reserva Federal sobre la subida de sus tipos en los próximos meses. Esto contribuyó a revertir parte del repunte de las rentabilidades a corto plazo e infundió prudencia a los inversores con respecto a los activos con mayor sensibilidad a los tipos. No obstante, en otras áreas del mercado —especialmente en los bonos de alto rendimiento— hay cada vez más tranquilidad.

Entretanto, los mercados internacionales continúan marcando el ritmo de las acciones. La renta variable japonesa ha alcanzado sus niveles máximos desde mayo de 2000. Los activos europeos también registraron un comportamiento positivo. Sin embargo, si bien las noticias del viernes deberían proporcionar cierta sensación de alivio a corto plazo, es poco probable que la incertidumbre sobre el papel de Grecia en la zona del euro se disipe. Continuamos priorizando las acciones internacionales frente a las estadounidenses y, en el universo de la renta fija, la deuda corporativa frente a los bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo y otros activos con sensibilidad a los tipos

Trends Below the Surface
F e b r u a r y 2 3 , 2 0 1 5
A Late Rally on Greek News
U.S. stocks and bonds treaded water for most of last week, but equities managed
to squeeze out a new high on Friday following news of a tentative deal between
Greece and the European Union (EU) finance ministers to extend the Greek bailout
for four months. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index
rose 0.67% to close the week at 18,140 and 2,110, respectively, while the Nasdaq
Composite Index climbed 1.27% to 4,955. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year
Treasury inched up from 2.06% to 2.12% as its price correspondingly fell.
While the major indexes were relatively stable last week, we continue to see
several trends below the surface that lead us to maintain our preferences:
International over U.S. equities, and within bonds, credit over long-term Treasuries
and other rate-sensitive assets.
Reading the Fed Tea Leaves
Prior to Friday afternoon, U.S. stock and bond indexes were generally flat for the
week, with little in the way of corporate earnings and on the heels of mixed
economic data releases. For example, producer prices fell at a much quicker pace
than expected in January, even after stripping out energy prices.
Investors spent much of last week pondering what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will
do with respect to raising rates in the coming months. Minutes released from the
Jan. 27-28 meeting suggest the Fed is somewhat divided over when to raise rates,
given that inflation is low and global risks elevated.
Ambiguity over the pace of monetary tightening reversed some of the recent uptick
in short-term yields. However, 10-year U.S. rates remain roughly 45 basis points
above their January lows. The shift in the rate environment has had a more
noticeable impact on rate-sensitive assets as investors grow more cautious. U.S.
utility exchange traded funds experienced significant outflows last week. Finally,
gold prices, which are historically sensitive to real interest rates (the interest rate
after inflation), have slid as rates have risen, with gold now down 8% from its
January peak.
While investors have become more cautious on investments most likely to be
affected by higher interest rates, there is a growing comfort with other areas of the
bond market. Flows into high yield bond funds have surged and as investors have
favored the asset class, spreads—the difference between the yield of high yield
bonds and Treasuries—have narrowed by more than 50 basis points over the last
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
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WEEKLY INVESTMENT
COMMENTARY
Investors spent much
of last week pondering
what the Fed will do with
respect to raising rates
in the coming months.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Feb. 23, 2015, and
may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing
involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility
of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income
investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market
value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest
payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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Greece will remain a
chronic issue for investors
for some time to come. Still,
we maintain our preference
for international equities
over U.S. stocks, given the
high valuations of the latter.
few weeks. We still see relative value in this asset class, despite outperforming both
nominal Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities this year.
International Markets Continue to Rally
Meanwhile, international markets continue to set the pace for stocks. Japanese
equities have hit their highest levels since May 2000. The Topix Index is now up
6.5% year-to-date, outpacing U.S. equity markets by roughly 4%.
What has distinguished this year’s rally is that Japanese equities no longer appear
dependent on a weak yen. With the Bank of Japan declining to add further
monetary stimulus, the yen has been relatively stable year-to-date. We continue to
see good opportunity in Japanese equities.
European assets have also performed well, as investors are taking comfort from a
steadier economy and the tailwind of quantitative easing by the European Central
Bank (ECB). But the rally suggests investors had been discounting an eventual
agreement between Greece and its creditors. This view appeared to be validated
on Friday when EU finance ministers agreed to extend aid to Greece for four
months. Whether this will be sufficient time to address the longer-term
differences between Greece and its creditors remains an open question.
Prior to the announcement, it was revealed that factions within the German
government were prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone. This hardline stance
is partly a function of shifting domestic considerations. As the new anti-euro
Alternative party continues to gain momentum in Germany, Chancellor Merkel’s
latitude to compromise with the Greek government is increasingly constrained.
While Friday’s news should provide some short-term relief, the issue of Greece’s
place in the eurozone is unlikely to go away. As the negotiations continue, investors
should focus on a couple of metrics: bank deposits and government finances.
Greece has been bleeding deposits since late last year and is now dependent on
the ECB’s emergency liquidity assistance facility. A second problem is a plunge in
tax collections as individuals withhold tax payments on hopes for future relief.
In short, Greece will remain a chronic issue for investors for some time to come. Still,
we maintain our preference for international equities over U.S. stocks, which are
fully valued at the moment.
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