Tipos USA: presos de sí mismos

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Jueves, 29 de Octubre

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¿Subirá los tipos de interés la Fed en diciembre? Depende. Valoren ahora las diferencias en el Comunicado entre septiembre y el de ayer: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September suggests that economic activity is has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady. Nonetheless, labor market indicators, on balance, show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved slightly lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.  The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring global economic and financial developments abroad . Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain  whether it will be appropriate to raise thise target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term

En definitiva, un crecimiento más fuerte pero creación de empleo que se modera.
Sobre los mercados financieros y contexto internacional, ha pasado de preocuparse a seguirlo con atención.
Y deja abierta la puerta en diciembre a analizarlo todo, tomando entonces la decisión sobre los tipos.

Sí, la Fed ha llevado su objetivo de transparencia al máximo: dependerá del escenario económico, financiero y contexto internacional en diciembre.
Veamos.
Por lo que respecta a la economía, hoy mismo conoceremos la primera estimación del crecimiento del Q3. Y será débil. ¿Podría mejorar antes de la siguiente reunión? Espero que sí, aunque no los suficiente. Y con esto también me refiero a la inflación, más allá del efecto escalón por la fuerte caída de los precios un año atrás. ¿Qué resta entonces para inclinar la balanza hacia la subida de tipos en diciembre? Claro, los mercados financieros. Son, al final, los mercados.

Ayer la reacción del mercado al FOMC fue marginal, incluso más positiva. Lo vemos especialmente en el USD. Pero, ¿quiere la Fed un USD al alza? Lo digo, además, por la inflación. ¡Qué complicado es todo!.

¿Mi impresión? Sigo pensando que la probabilidad mayor es que espere al Q1 del 2016 para subir los tipos. Y parto, naturalmente, de unos mercados que seguirán siendo volátiles. Pero no imposibles como los que sufrimos en agosto/septiembre. Por lo demás, la cuestión de fondo es si un escenario de moderación económica y tipos al alza no se convertirán en un nuevo factor de incertidumbre y más volatilidad en los mercados. Sí, son los mercados.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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