¿Cómo de sano está el sistema bancario?

Natixis Global AM - Sabado, 12 de Marzo

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Strength and resilience of banks worldwide have been called into question in recent weeks. As bank stocks and bonds were being battered in Europe, the co-CEO of Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, issued a statement that his business was “rock solid”. Then when concerns spread to U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO offered his vote of confidence by buying about $26 million worth of his company’s stock.

 

Just how confident should investors be that a repeat of the 2008 banking crisis is not on the horizon? What is the root cause of Europe’s steep banking sector selloff? Can banks grow and prosper in a marketplace being reshaped by new regulations and technologies? Four investment experts from across Natixis Global Asset Management weigh in.

How Healthy Is the Global Banking System? Strength and resilience of banks worldwide have been called into question in recent weeks. As bank stocks and bonds were being battered in Europe, the co-CEO of Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, issued a statement that his business was “rock solid”. Then when concerns spread to U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO offered his vote of confidence by buying about $26 million worth of his company’s stock. Just how confident should investors be that a repeat of the 2008 banking crisis is not on the horizon? What is the root cause of Europe’s steep banking sector selloff? Can banks grow and prosper in a marketplace being reshaped by new regulations and technologies? Four investment experts from across Natixis Global Asset Management weigh in. David Lafferty, CFA® , Chief Market Strategist Natixis Global Asset Management Since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009), banks have faced a difficult operating environment due to low interest rates, slow loan growth, increased legal costs, and regulatory pressure to bolster capital. In recent weeks, they have come under additional pressure as investors worry about loan losses from the energy sector, lower net interest margins from a flattening yield curve, and potential loss of income from negative deposit rates at central banks. To be sure, global banks face numerous headwinds. However, all this bad news shouldn’t be extrapolated into a bearish outlook for the industry as a whole. On that front, we continue to hear that “banks are the new utilities”, implying that their capital and pricing structure are so highly regulated that growth can never return. Perhaps more alarming, some have wondered if the selloff in banks is foreshadowing another banking crisis. I think both of these assertions are off the mark. Adapting to new regulation Banks have adapted and will continue to adjust to the tighter regulatory environment imposed by Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Moving towards more prudent leverage ratios will hardly end lending as we know it. Moreover, banks with broader flexibility can increase earnings from other activities that require less capital, like asset management, or diversify into regions with better loan growth and/or higher rates. While some regional banks with greater energy exposure may see their loan books impaired, sector exposure at the larger banks appears manageable. Also, unlike the housing collapse, the spillover effects of low oil prices into other parts of the economy will be modest – and arguably positive. Energy is not sub-prime, and 2016 is not 2008. Value opportunities today Perhaps most important for investors to recognize is that these fears are already largely priced into the banking sector. Across the 70+ major banks that make up the global industry, valuations are compelling, with an average P/E ratio of just 8.5x – a 50% discount to the broader market. On a price-to-book value basis, banks trade below their (theoretical) breakup values at just 0.85x. Both of these metrics are significantly below their long-term averages. Interestingly, while investors have been quick to punish banks that need to boost their capital or issue equity, they have yet to reward them with the higher multiples a less risky business should enjoy. Banks certainly face many headwinds, but current market prices already reflect this. Moreover, the de-risking of bank balance sheets better positions them to overcome these obstacles. David Herro, CFA® , Chief Investment Officer, International Equities Harris Associates Despite the numerous headlines, we believe the global banking system is in good shape. Tier 1 capital ratios are near double where they were eight years ago. Within the quality, large banks we follow, bad debts are well controlled. And, although there are some areas of concern such as energy lending, overall credit quality has been improving. As a result, we view February’s market activity as indiscriminate selling due to macro and regulatory concerns. Europe’s extreme price overreactions Looking specifically at European financials, we see an extreme overreaction in share prices – thus, an opportunity for the long-term investor. We have actually seen a number of financial firms report improving credit, expenses being cut, loan losses declining, fee-based income increasing and dividends being increased. This seems to be inconsistent with recent share price movement. One of the market fears in early 2016 has been that with a flat yield curve, all else being equal, lending spreads will shrink and that is generally not good for banks. However, when you blend the negatives with the positives, this doesn’t warrant the share price movement we have seen within financials. During the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 and then during the sovereign debt fears in 2012 and 2013, the average European financial had a Tier I capital ratio around 5%–6% compared to 11%–13% today. The definition of capital has become a lot more conservative over the past few years and banks are better capitalized today than in 2008 and 2009, which gives them the improved ability to absorb losses – despite the fact there aren’t even widespread losses. Their balance sheets are much stronger today than 8 years ago. During the second crisis in 2012–2013, there was a belief that the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) would default and the banks that held a lot of sovereign debt would have to take huge losses in their portfolios. However, what has occurred is that the Italian 10-year bond previously traded at around 8% a few years ago and is now around 1.6%, which is less than the U.S. 10-year Treasury. I don’t think investors should let current marks in pricing shade their picture, because the market is often wrong. European recovery continues Europe continues to recover from its slowdown. Take, for example, Germany, where the current 6.2% unemployment rate is lower than at any time since reunification. In the U.K., retail sales rose 3% in January. The aforementioned “PIIGS” have stabilized and have seen sovereign bond yields plummet. Among the reasons I continue to view Europe as an attractive hunting ground: • Profitable franchises and formidable balance sheets at attractive valuations • Many European companies are multinationals that generate sales and cash flow globally • A weaker euro due to monetary stimulation should be a tailwind to the profitability of many European companies Overall, in this environment, I’m confident that quality, well-run businesses can continue to grow earnings and cash flow streams. Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist Natixis Asset Management Today’s macroeconomic scenario of low growth, inflation and interest rates is the main problem banks are facing. In the euro zone, this environment could be with us for some time as there don’t appear to be any growth impulses to propel the economy and we certainly cannot rely only on monetary policy to change the picture. At one point, it seemed likely that a strong fiscal policy would improve the growth profile of the euro zone, allowing the gross domestic product (GDP) to converge to a higher trajectory. Now it seems highly unlikely that this scenario can play out. Also, lower oil prices have not been a catalyst for a spike in consumption as historically has been the case. Low inflation means longer accommodation Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explained at a January 21 meeting that they would need to keep monetary policy accommodative for the foreseeable future. He noted new measures could be announced to help boost the inflation rate to 2% – which fell to -1.41% in January 2016. This means that the yield curve will most likely flatten – which is not advantageous for the banking sector. 2016 is not 2008 The issues facing European banks are considerably different today than they were during the midst of the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis. Back then, the big question was what does each bank have in its portfolio? Today we don’t see mistrust among banks, and the ECB’s behavior is not a substitute for the money market as was the case in 2008– 2009. Moreover, solvency ratios and liquidity ratios are now at a safer level than in 2008. Basel III has been put in place and most European banks are robust. However, there are new issues banks are facing in the region. I believe the main question now is can they adapt their strategy in a non-supportive macro scenario within the framework of the banking union. (The banking union in the European Union is the transfer of responsibility for banking policy from the national level to the EU level in several countries of the European Union, initiated in 2012 as a response to the euro-zone crisis.) The banking union may have an ultimate goal of transitioning from national to European champions – but today banks are mainly national and not European. At the same time, banks are challenged by digitalization. They have to swiftly transform their business model to digital banking or become obsolete – especially with a growing number of financial technology startup companies entering the financial area. Finally, with the current weak global macroeconomic scenario, one risk we need to monitor closely is bank liabilities in emerging countries. This is a source of concern for investors today, but again, the magnitude is not what it was in 2008. Julian Wellesley, Vice President and Senior Equity Analyst Loomis, Sayles & Company About half way through the movie Alien, Sigourney Weaver and the other surviving crew members of Nostromo are searching their spaceship for the missing creature. The alien keeps changing shape, so they are not sure exactly what it looks like. The camera pans around the maze of empty corridors. Something horrible must be about to happen, otherwise why would the sinister music be playing? This is what investing in European banks feels like right now. The falls in share prices tell us that something horrible must be coming, but no one is quite sure what. Some market watchers who were bullish on banks late last year turned bearish after share prices had fallen 30%. Here are five reasons to explain bank share price weakness. 1. Oil and other commodity price weakness tends to cause asset quality problems for banks. This is the prime culprit. Falling commodities have been a concern since late 2014, but the very low prices reached this year have really focused investors' minds. Some large European banks have outsize exposure relative to their U.S. rivals (who typically have a very manageable 3% of loans to energy, metals and mining). While we believe much of European banks' exposure is relatively safe, such as short-term trade finance loans, some investors prefer to sell first and ask questions later. 2. Negative interest rates are squeezing bank revenues. Again, nothing new here. The European Central Bank has been charging banks to deposit money with it since 2014. But the European Central Bank's recent cut to -0.3% has reminded investors that this is painful for banks. Lower interest rates reduce the interest income that banks receive from their borrowers, but banks are unwilling to offset that loss of revenue by charging individuals or small businesses to deposit money with them. Central banks have imposed negative interest rates to stimulate the economy. But they're unlikely to achieve that aim if they're also squeezing bank profits...a healthy economy needs healthy banks to keep providing loans. 3. Political risks in Europe, which could lead to further economic weakness and/or countries leaving the European Union (EU). Britain will have a referendum on its EU membership in June. A vote to leave would lead to slower growth and a period of uncertainty as its treaty with what is left of the EU is renegotiated. Britain isn't the only headache. Angela Merkel's popularity has fallen in a backlash to her welcome of middle Eastern migrants. This poses some risk to Germany's position as the de-facto leader of the euro zone. 4. Fear of a resurgence of legacy problems in European banks. The biggest concern is Italy, where growth has been sluggish for decades, and where non-performing loans (NPL) are worryingly high at 18% of banks' total loans. The inflow of new non-performing loans is low, but there is some risk of further NPL disposal costs if the value of collateral held against these NPL falls in value. Still, I don't expect the sudden re-emergence of old problems like the alien bursting out of John Hurt's stomach. 5. Capital concerns. Any worries about banks inevitably lead to capital concerns, since banks' business model is dependent on leverage. But how worried should we be? Not only do asset quality concerns look lower than in the last crisis, but banks’ capital is stronger too. European banks now have 13% core capital on average, up from 9% in 2012. Some banks (including large Spanish and French banks) have less than others, and minimum capital requirements keep on rising. But we believe higher capital levels at all European banks reduce the risk of financial contagion if we do have another recession. U.S. banks are in better shape than their European counterparts. The U.S. economy is stronger than Europe’s, its bank regulators are tougher, and the U.S. doesn’t have negative interest rates. Emerging markets banks are more of a concern. As China’s economy cools, its demand for commodities has fallen. This has hurt other countries that are dependent on commodity exports to China, including Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia. I am expecting a very difficult environment for emerging markets banks but not a banking crisis. It's possible to paint a downside scenario that could justify even further falls in bank share prices. The risks cited above are all connected, so they could all happen at once. Investors are especially cautious because they underestimated the scale of problems last time. But I'm feeling moderately optimistic. Bank managers and regulators have become much more conservative since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009. I'm confident that the last crisis – unlike the Alien movie – shouldn't lead to years of disappointing sequels. IMPORTANT INFORMATION The banking union in the European Union is the transfer of responsibility for banking policy from the national level to the EU level in several countries of the European Union, initiated in 2012 as a response to the euro-zone crisis. Basel III (or Third Basel Accord) is a global, voluntary regulatory framework on bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risk. Book-to-value per share formula is used to calculate the per share value of a company based on its equity available to common shareholders. Cash flow is the net amount of cash and cash-equivalents moving into and out of a business. Commodity is a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold, such as copper or coffee. Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss. De-risk / de-risking is the activity or series of activities which reduces or lowers risk. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is a compendium of federal regulations, primarily affecting financial institutions and their customers, that the Obama administration passed in 2010 in an attempt to prevent the recurrence of events that caused the 2008 financial crisis. Euro-Zone Crisis (also referred to as the European debt crisis or the European sovereign debt crisis) is a multi-year debt crisis that has been taking place in the European Union since the end of 2009. Fed refers to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Headwinds refers to a situation that will make growth difficult. Liquidity ratios measure a company's ability to meet short-term debt obligations. P/E Ratio or the Price-to-Earnings Ratio is a ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. Rising rate environment refers to the climate of financial markets during a period when interest rates are increasing. Solvency ratios measure a company's ability to meet long-term debt obligations. Spread is the difference in yield between Treasury and non-Treasury securities that are identical in all respects except for quality rating. Tier 1 capital is the core measure of a bank's financial strength from a regulator's point of view. The term used to describe the capital adequacy of a bank. Tier 1 capital includes equity capital and disclosed reserves. Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. Yield is the income return on an investment. 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