Julius Baer: Comentarios Divisas y Petróleo

Redacción - Lunes, 29 de Enero

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US data fails to lift the US dollar The advanced reading of the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP) figures in the final quarter of 2017 disappointed our own, and market, expectations, coming in at just 2.6% quarter-on-quarter at an annualized rate. Although there is good chance that the initial estimate will be revised higher as underlying US growth appears much stronger – best measured by a much stronger figure of 3.6% for gross domestic purchases – the disappoint-ing data point has strengthened the negative momentum of the US dollar. With the just-lukewarm stance of the European Central Bank towards euro strength last week, we do not think that EUR/USD can reach our forecast of 1.14 in three months. While the negative interest differential remains the main headwind for the euro, we expect the currency to depreciate to 1.20 in the next three months. We also revise our 12-month forecast to 1.24, indicating that in January 2018 the current level is fully justified. With less euro weakness to be expected over the next three months, we also revise our EUR/CHF forecast to 1.16 in three months, reaching 1.20 in 12 months.

Economic data disappointments in the United States and acts as an obstacle for the recovery of the US dollar. We soften our forecast for a weaker EUR/USD in 3 and 12 months.

 

David Kohl, Chief Currency Strategist, Julius Baer

 

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Oil: Finally settling above USD 70?

 

Oil continues to flirt with USD 70 per barrel and it remains to be seen if prices are able to lastingly settle above this much-watched level with the latest up move. Global growth optimism, the bullish market mood and technical momentum still provide robust support. We still believe that prices above USD 60 per barrel project a too rosy fundamental picture. Indeed, the global oil market, and specifically US supplies, has been tightening faster than expected in recent months on the back of strong demand growth. However, this tightening trend is set to slow and reverse as output growth from US shale basins, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deep-water platforms should more than match projected global demand growth for the remainder of the year. US refinery runs seasonally soften over the coming weeks, which is an additional factor that should slow the recent declines of storage levels in North America. Hedge fund and other investor expect rising prices to remain in unchartered territory and it’s a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ profit-taking will occur. Timing the turning points is a very difficult exercise. We stick to our cautious view and see profit-taking as a key risk going forward. The shale business should continue to expand drilling and completion activity as prices rise. Although the leading companies commit to capital discipline, there is sufficient private equity capital chasing the shale boom.

 

Oil continues to flirt with USD 70 per barrel. Global growth optimism, the bullish mood and technical momentum support prices. We believe that today’s oil prices project a too rosy picture, stick to our cautious view, and view the market as being at risk from profit taking.

 

Norbert Rücker, Head Macro & Commodity Research, Julius Baer

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