Monthly Investment Strategy de AXA IM

Laurence Boone, economista jefe del grupo AXA - Viernes, 01 de Septiembre

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Clouds over US outlook, sunshine in Europe August Investment Strategy §  In the US, sentiment towards politics and policy has deteriorated as a result of escalating tensions with North Korea and poor cooperation between the White House and Congress. We now expect minimal or no fiscal stimulus.

§  We scale down our expectation for further Fed policy normalisation and now expect only three more hikes by end-2018, respectively in December 2017, March and June 2018. Before that, the Fed looks set to announce the unwinding of its balance sheet at its September meeting.

§  Poor sentiment in the US and lower Fed funds expectations into 2018 have led us to revise down our targets for long-term interest rates. We now expect 10Y Treasury yields at 2.2% by end-2017 and 2.7% by end-2018.

§  In Europe, with economic momentum brisker and inflation on track, the ECB should start tapering from January 2018. However, the strength of the euro will likely weigh on the design of the tapering decision.

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