Nos es el momento de una QE3 (actas de la Fed)

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Jueves, 12 de Julio

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"The Fed is open to buying more treasury bonds to stimulate the economy, but the recovery might need to weaken for a consensus to build"; Actas de la Fed. Como ven, la situación debe empeorar de forma clara para que haya consenso dentro de la Fed sobre nuevas medidas expansivas. Lo peor entonces es una situación, como la actual, donde la desaceleración es evidente pero se mantiene la posibilidad de que sea temporal. La otra opción que puede dar lugar a intervención es que la inflación cae consistentemente por debajo del 2.0 % referencia oficial. Tampoco es el caso por el momento.

En el FOMC del 21 de junio la mayoría de los consejeros de la Fed se inclinaron por sólo ligeras medidas de alivio monetario (ampliar el Twist hasta final de año) valorando en este tiempo la evolución de los acontecimientos.
La reacción del mercado ayer a las Actas no fue muy positiva, aunque es cierto que los descensos fueron finalmente moderados.

Les muestro un extracto de las Actas conocidas ayer:

Committee members saw the information received
over the intermeeting period as suggesting that the
economy had been expanding moderately.  However,
growth in employment had slowed in recent months,
and almost all members saw the unemployment rate as
still elevated relative to levels that they viewed as consistent with the Committee's mandate.  Members generally expected growth to be moderate over coming
quarters and then to pick up very gradually, with the
unemployment rate declining only slowly.  Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and
a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had
projected in April.  Furthermore, strains in global financial markets, which largely stemmed from the sovereign debt and banking situation in Europe, had increased during the intermeeting period and continued
to pose significant downside risks to economic activity
both here and abroad, making the outlook quite uncertain.  The possibility that U.S. fiscal policy would be
more contractionary than anticipated was also cited as a
downside risk.  Inflation had slowed, mainly reflecting
the decline in the prices of crude oil and gasoline in recent months.  Averaging through its recent fluctuations, inflation appeared to be running near the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; with longerterm inflation expectations stable, members anticipated
that inflation over the medium run would be at or below that  rate.  Some members judged that persistent
slack in resource utilization posed downside risks to the
outlook for inflation.  In contrast, one member thought
that maintaining the current highly accommodative
stance of monetary policy well into 2014 would pose
upside risks to inflation.
In their discussion of monetary policy for the period
ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to
keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to
¼ percent in order to support a stronger economic
recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is
at the 2 percent rate that the Committee judges most
consistent with its mandate.  In addition, all members
but one agreed that it would be appropriate to continue
through the end of this year the Committee's program
to extend the average maturity of the Federal Reserve's
holdings of securities; specifically, they agreed to continue purchasing Treasury securities with remaining
maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace of
about $44 billion per month while selling or redeeming
an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining
maturities of approximately 3 years or less.  These steps
would increase the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term Treasury securities by about $267 billion while
reducing its holdings of shorter-term Treasury securities by the same amount.  Members also agreed to
maintain the Committee's existing policy regarding the reinvestment of principal payments from Federal Reserve holdings of agency securities into agency MBS.
Members generally judged that continuing the maturity
extension program would put some downward pressure
on longer-term interest rates and help make broader
financial conditions more accommodative.  Some
members noted the risk that continued purchases of
longer-term Treasury securities could, at some point,
lead to deterioration in the functioning of the Treasury
securities market that could undermine the intended
effects of the policy.  However, members generally
agreed that such risks seemed low at present, and were
outweighed by the expected benefits of the action.
Several members noted that the downward pressure on
longer-term rates from continuing the Committee's
maturity extension program was likely to be modest.
One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called
for further policy accommodation.
With respect to the statement to be released following
the meeting, members agreed that only relatively small
modifications to the first two paragraphs were needed
to reflect the incoming economic data and the changes
to the economic outlook.  In light of their assessment
of the economic situation, almost all members again
agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy
and currently anticipates that economic conditions-
including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run-are
likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal
funds rate at least through late 2014.  Some Committee
members indicated that their policy judgment reflected
in part their perception of significant downside risks to
growth, especially since the Committee's ability to respond to weaker-than-expected economic conditions
would be somewhat limited by the constraint imposed
on monetary policy when the policy rate is at or near its
effective lower bound.  Members again noted that the
forward guidance is conditional on economic developments and that the date given in the statement would
be subject to revision should there be a significant
change in the economic outlook.
A few members expressed the view that further policy
stimulus likely would be necessary to promote satisfactory growth in employment and to ensure that the inflation rate would be at the Committee's goal.  Several
others noted that additional policy action could be warranted if the economic recovery were to lose momentum, if the downside risks to the forecast became sufficiently pronounced, or if inflation seemed likely to run
persistently below the Committee's longer-run objectiveThe Committee agreed that it was prepared to
take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in
labor market conditions in a  context of price stability.
A few members observed that it would be helpful to
have a better understanding of how large the Federal
Reserve's asset purchases would have to be to cause a
meaningful deterioration in securities market functioning, and of the potential costs of such deterioration for
the economy as a whole.

 

José Luis Martínez Campuzano es Estratega de Citi en España

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