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BofAML: Europe Economic Weekly: Steady it goes
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 03 de Agosto en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML: Europe Economic Weekly: Steady it goes</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>Europe Economic Weekly: Steady it goes • Investors focused on China concerns this week, but we argue that domestic factors currently dominate Euro area developments. •  Euro area unemployment declines in tandem with better growth. Wage growth will remain protracted.•  Next week, the BoE's QIR should signal rate hikes are coming, but not until next year.<br />
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<a href="http://research1.ml.com/C?q=D3lMaMH5IEnvxlzWmvVPZQ&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=EXMf1w" target="_blank"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ad04113e64&view=fimg&th=14ef3138fe5e9cf5&attid=0.1&disp=emb&attbid=ANGjdJ_ATznIZhgrPr4mrZ_yTNqHb36hzOOWrUc6eUDhwcWVa5O7BBaQl_Df7dLi3_RpIKLQgg2P0zUJiYR_zsfTVi0QTesMP9W5xu6NEKKa4aHx49kIxTZFQFHI8j0&sz=w32-h32&ats=1438604714482&rm=14ef3138fe5e9cf5&zw&atsh=1" style="height:16px; width:16px" /></a> <a href="http://research1.ml.com/C?q=D3lMaMH5IEnvxlzWmvVPZQ&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=EXMf1w" target="_blank">Click for full report*</a></p>
    <p><strong>Weekly view</strong><strong>:It's not China (yet) </strong></p>

<p>Chinese concerns remain in investors' focus this week. We would argue that domestic factors currently dominate Euro area developments. </p>

<p><strong>Euro area:</strong><strong>Labour market-friendly growth </strong></p>

<p>Okun's law, the relationship between GDP growth and changes in the unemployment rate, remains intact in the Euro area: the unemployment rate has declined and employment is growing. However, low productivity gains suggest that wage growth will remain protracted for some time. France's labour market is bucking the trend with a lagged recovery. </p>

<p><strong>UK</strong><strong>:Rate hikes are coming: Inflation Report Preview </strong></p>

<p>This is the message that we expect from the Bank of England next Thursday (6 August), when it simultaneously publishes its interest rate decision, policy meeting minutes and new forecasts. We preview those releases. </p>

<p><strong>The week ahead:</strong> </p>

<p>Next week, we expect the Bank of England to keep its policy rate unchanged. We expect Spain's July composite PMI to accelerate to 56.1, from 55.8 in June. The Italian composite PMI should edge down to 53.8, from 54.0 in June. 'Flash' PMIs were conducted at the height of Greek tensions. Survey responses submitted later in the month might be more upbeat. Therefore, we cannot rule out upward revision in French and German 'final' prints, after disappointing 'flash' releases. Finally, we will be paying special attention to German factory orders and their breakdown, where we could detect (if at all) early warnings of weakness and spillovers coming from China. </p>

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<em><strong>See report (link above) for further information.</strong></em></p>
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