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“El momento de mercado favorece al sector financiero español”
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Miercoles, 26 de Noviembre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">“El momento de mercado favorece al sector financiero español”</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>
	Los expertos del banco privado Julius Baer comentan que el momento de mercado favorece al sector financiero español (su recomendación es sobreponderar) y repasan el mínimo histórico del rendimiento del bono a 10 años.</p>

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	<strong>INVESTMENT STRATEGY</strong></p>
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	<strong>European equities rallying</strong></p>
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	Spanish 10-year government bond yields have undershot the 2% for the first time yesterday following the current quantitative easing talks in the eurozone. As a consequence the IBEX 35 has further gained ground, rising by 1.2% yesterday. Without any surprise, financials were the best performing sector, moving up by 1.9%. We remain confident that the current environment is supportive for financials (we are overweight) and peripheral eurozone markets (we are overweight Spain).</p>
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	<strong>Given the current market environment, we remain overweight financials and Spain. </strong></p>
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	Christoph Riniker, Head of Strategy Research, Julius Baer</p>
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	<strong>ECB’s Draghi nurtures speculation on bond purchases</strong></p>
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	• 10-year Spanish government bond yield at new all-time low.</p>
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	• Yields decline on speculation of central bank purchases and rise thereafter; we would not buy long-dated bonds now.</p>
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	Government bond yields continued to trend lower in the euro area last week. Yield of the 10-year German government bond, or Bund, finished the week at 0.77%, down from 0.88% a month ago and 1.1% in mid-September. The decline was even more pronounced for the equivalent Spanish government bond, whose yield declined below 2% for the first time in history.</p>
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	The broad-based decline of the euro area government bond yields reflects both the weakness of the domestic economy and the speculation on purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB). Indeed, incoming economic data is consistent with sub-trend growth. The purchasing managers’ index, for example, slowed from 52.1 in September to 51.4 in early October, staying barely above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Speculation on large-scale purchases of government bonds, often called ‘quantitative easing’ for their impact on the central bank’s balance sheet and the lowering of yields it implies, accentuated following the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt on Friday. Draghi clearly said that the downtrend of inflation expectations needs to be stopped, and that all unconventional monetary measures must be taken into consideration for this aim. Draghi, however, left the timing open as he wants to analyse the impact of the previous steps first, such as the second tranche of the targeted long-term repurchase agreement scheduled for early December. The words were sufficient to trigger massive bond purchases and to lower the yields as outlined above.</p>
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	<strong>The speculation on government purchases will keep bond yields depressed in the shorter term. Experience from the US shows, however, that yields decline in anticipation of a central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) and begin to rise thereafter. We thus maintain our call for higher German yields in the medium and longer term. </strong></p>
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	Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer</p>

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