La Carta de la Bolsa

Enviar por Email:
Julius Baer: sobre China, la inflación, Suiza y las materias primas
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Domingo, 02 de Agosto en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Julius Baer: sobre China, la inflación, Suiza y las materias primas</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong>INVESTMENT STRATEGY - The week that was - it’s China again</strong></p>

<p>Having believed that the market turmoil in Chinese equities is behind us, we were taught better at the beginning of this week. The sell-off in equities and concerns about the Chi-nese economy as well as other commodity-related news have put further pressure on oil prices. Consequently it does not come as a surprise that a flight to safety has pushed down government bond yields here and overseas. However, what comes down goes up again as Chinese equities showed in the second half of the week.</p>

<p><br />
Christoph Riniker, Head Equity Strategy Research, Julius Baer</p>

<p><br />
<strong>*</strong></p>

<p><br />
<strong>ECONOMICS: Eurozone inflation remains above zero</strong></p>

<p><br />
Today’s eurozone inflation estimate for July is expected to show that prices remained broadly stable, i.e. an inflation rate of just 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The sharp drop in oil prices at the end of last year remains the major driver for headline inflation, somewhat understating the true price dynamics.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>The core inflation rate, which excludes energy prices and the volatile fresh food component, hovers around 1% and a preliminary July reading of 0.8% is expected. This is clearly a bit too low when compared to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) price stability target of almost 2%. This serves as a good justification to maintain the bond purchasing programme. At the same time defla-tion risks have receded considerably in the eurozone thanks to the sizeable deprecation of the euro in past 12 months.</p>

<p><br />
<strong>Eurozone inflation is expected to be low in July, but not too low to provoke additional action by the ECB.</strong></p>

<p> </p>

<p>David Kohl, Chief Currency Strategist and Head Economist Germany, Julius Baer</p>
    <p><strong>FIXED INCOME: Switzerland: Swiss National Bank’s equity down to CHF34 billion</strong></p>

<p>The Swiss National Bank (SNB) just published the figures for H1 2015. Due to the revaluation of the Swiss franc against the euro and other currencies in which it holds international reserves, it reports a loss in H1 2015 of CHF50 billion. In particular, it again lost CHF18 billion on currencies and CHF2billion on gold in Q2 2015. Equity is down from CHF86 billion at the end of last year to CHF34 billion at the end of June 2015.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>We all know that the SNB had argued in January that it needed to terminate the floor for the euro at CHF1.20 because it had been forced to purchase too much foreign exchange, leading to an explosion of the balance sheet and increasing the risk of just what we have seen now: massive swings in its equity. Our economists have elaborated on the various dilemmas the SNB faces in the ‘Safe haven Swiss franc’ publication of 20 July 2015. That said, there had been some speculation that the SNB would try to limit the losses on its euro holdings by intervening in the market in June. Indeed, the EUR/CHF exchange rate had been moving higher even during the depth of the Greek crisis.</p>

<p><br />
<strong>The outlook for a recovery in the eurozone and higher USD rates should lessen the demand for safe havens and facilitate the job of the SNB going forward. The massive loss in H1 2015 is thus no reason to panic.</strong></p>

<p><br />
Markus Allenspach, Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer</p>

<p> </p>

<p>*</p>

<p><br />
<strong>COMMODITIES: Respite after the sell-off?</strong></p>

<p>The Bloomberg Commodity Index shows signs of stabilisation following the 12% sell-off since mid-May. Oil prices received support from official US data on Wednesday showing lower storage and declining production, trends which are set to continue. Taking further into account looming short-covering risks on the back of the excessive bearish futures markets positioning, we expect a near-term oil price rebound. That said, recent statements by big oil companies confirm our ‘lower for longer’ view. The energy industry should remain under pressure to cut costs into the foreseeable future. Elsewhere, natural gas dropped on mild weather forecasts and agricultural prices firmed on strong US export figures.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Demand for grains and oilseeds remains robust on rising feed and biofuel consumption. Beyond current demand strength, our outlook for downward revisions to official corn and soybean yield projections over the coming months are likely to tighten supplies more than the market anticipates. While we are not alone in our view it differs from current consensus and may take some time to bear fruit. Despite the sell-off in commodities we maintain our neutral view as the fading supercycle will bring persistent headwinds to the asset class. But there are selective investment opportunities including palladium, corn and natural gas.</p>

<p><br />
<strong>Commodities are showing initial signs of stabilisation following the past weeks’ sell-off. We maintain our neutral view on the asset class as the fading supercycle will bring persisting headwinds. But there are selective investment opportunities including palladium, corn and natural gas.</strong></p>

<p><br />
Norbert Ruecker, Head Commodities Research, Julius Baer</p>

<p>**</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/244511
[Volver]
Otros artículos en La Carta
Lo más leído hoy en La Carta