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La era de la baja volatilidad llega a su fin y surgen otras oportunidades
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Martes, 21 de Octubre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">La era de la baja volatilidad llega a su fin y surgen otras oportunidades</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>
	Parece que el periodo de volatilidad inusualmente baja que comenzó hace unos años ha llegado a su fin. Aunque el sentimiento de los inversores ha cambiado claramente, estimamos que los fundamentales de la economía permanecen relativamente estables. Esto sugiere que las recientes salidas de renta variable podrían ofrecer oportunidades para inversores a largo plazo en clases de activo como la renta variable de compañías de gran y mega capitalización.</p>

    <p>
	The Era of Low Volatility Ends—But Restores Some Value<br />
	o c t o b e r 2 0 , 2 0 1 4<br />
	A Tumultuous Week<br />
	It appears the period of unusually low volatility that began a couple of years<br />
	ago has finally come to an end. In a tumultuous week, the Dow Jones Industrial<br />
	Average fell 0.99% to close at 16,380, the S&P 500 Index declined 1.05% to 1,886<br />
	and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 0.42% to 4,258. Meanwhile, the yield on<br />
	the 10-year Treasury dipped below 2% intraday Wednesday, but ultimately ended<br />
	the week at 2.20%, down from 2.28% the Friday before. Of course, as Treasury<br />
	yields fell, their prices rose. All of last week’s action points to a classic flight-tosafety<br />
	scenario.<br />
	While investor sentiment has clearly shifted, economic fundamentals remain<br />
	relatively stable, in our estimation. This suggests the recent sell-off in stocks<br />
	could present opportunities for long-term investors.<br />
	Concerns Over Low Growth and Even Lower Inflation<br />
	Stocks recouped some of their losses on Friday, but last week was another difficult<br />
	one for equity markets. Volatility—as measured by the VIX Index—traded at its<br />
	highest level since December 2011 and equity markets experienced their worst<br />
	three-day stretch in years.<br />
	As was the case in prior weeks, the selling derived largely from fears over<br />
	economic growth (or lack thereof). Consistent with the past few months, much<br />
	of the worry remains centered on Europe. Last week brought more evidence of<br />
	the slowdown in the eurozone when the German Economic Ministry cut its 2014<br />
	and 2015 growth estimates.<br />
	Though Europe is the focus, the growth scare does not stop there. Investors continue<br />
	to worry about the scope and consequences of the Ebola outbreak. Even the U.S.<br />
	is not immune to the threat of slower growth. Last week brought September’s retail<br />
	sales data, which showed sales unexpectedly dropped 0.6%. The decline was fairly<br />
	widespread across many categories (although it should be noted that other data,<br />
	specifically industrial production and initial jobless claims, were strong).<br />
	Beyond the pace of growth, investors are also justifiably nervous over inflation, or<br />
	more accurately, the lack of any. While low inflation is typically a good thing, when<br />
	it crosses the line into deflation, companies lose pricing power, debt becomes a<br />
	bigger burden and, as Japan has demonstrated over the past 20 years, central<br />
	banks have a difficult time getting prices to rise.<br />
	Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is<br />
	BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment<br />
	Strategist, as well as Global Chief<br />
	Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s<br />
	iShares® business. Mr. Koesterich was<br />
	previously Global Head of Investment<br />
	Strategy for active equities and a senior<br />
	portfolio manager in the U.S. Market<br />
	Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm<br />
	in 2005, he was Chief North American<br />
	Strategist for State Street Bank.<br />
	It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are<br />
	answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.<br />
	so what do i do<br />
	with my money?®<br />
	WEEKLY INVESTMENT<br />
	COMMENTARY<br />
	While investor sentiment has<br />
	clearly shifted, economic<br />
	fundamentals remain<br />
	relatively stable, in our<br />
	estimation. This suggests<br />
	the recent sell-off in stocks<br />
	could present opportunities<br />
	for long-term investors.<br />
	This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer<br />
	or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of October 20, 2014,<br />
	and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary<br />
	and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to<br />
	accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.<br />
	Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing<br />
	involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility<br />
	of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income<br />
	investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market<br />
	value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest<br />
	payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.<br />
	FOR MORE INFOR MATION: blackrock.com<br />
	©2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY<br />
	are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere.<br />
	All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.<br />
	Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.<br />
	2620A-AC-1014 / USR-4776<br />
	Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee<br />
	The good news is that<br />
	despite the stock market<br />
	sell-off, investors do not<br />
	appear to be panicking.<br />
	While most deflationary concerns are focused on Europe, where inflation is running<br />
	at a scant 0.3%, recent readings suggest that unusually low inflation is a global<br />
	phenomenon. Last week witnessed a drop in U.K. inflation to the lowest level in<br />
	five years and a soft reading for Chinese consumer prices. Even U.S. inflation<br />
	remains tepid, with producer prices unexpectedly falling in September for the<br />
	first time in a year.<br />
	The drop in inflation has led to a corresponding decrease in inflation expectations.<br />
	The “breakeven” on U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) now suggests<br />
	investors expect inflation of roughly 1.90% over the next decade, down from<br />
	expectations of 2.30% in early August. This drop explains the entire decline in U.S.<br />
	Treasury yields over the same period.<br />
	Correction Restores Some Value<br />
	The good news is that despite the stock market sell-off, investors do not appear to<br />
	be panicking. Global exchange traded products saw inflows of $10.9 billion last week.<br />
	Granted, investors sold higher-risk European and emerging markets equities while<br />
	continuing to buy Treasuries, but not all the flows were defined by risk aversion.<br />
	Both U.S. large- and small-cap stocks gathered assets.<br />
	Our view remains that the recent sell-off is a midcycle correction and, as such, we<br />
	would maintain our exposure to global equity markets. If anything, the recent drop<br />
	in interest rates, coupled with the decline in stock valuations, provides an even<br />
	more compelling case for the asset class as offering better long-term return<br />
	prospects than bonds.<br />
	We continue to favor large- and mega-cap stocks. They have held up better than their<br />
	small- and mid-cap counterparts in the last few weeks, providing a bit of cushion<br />
	from the volatility. And with the recent sell-off having made them more attractively<br />
	valued, we suggest investors continue to emphasize larger capitalizations,<br />
	particularly with more volatility likely on the horizon.</p>

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