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“Subida de tipos: ¿una bendición en lugar de una amenaza?”
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Miercoles, 25 de Noviembre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">“Subida de tipos: ¿una bendición en lugar de una amenaza?”</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>La semana pasada los inversores se centraron, una vez más, en las políticas de los bancos centrales. La diferencia es que los inversores celebraron el potencial de mayor divergencia: la Reserva Federal endurece su política, mientras que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) continúa la senda de la expansión monetaria. Parece que ahora los inversores consideran la subida de tipos de interés de diciembre por parte de la Fed como un indicio de estabilidad económica en lugar de una amenaza. En Europa, la historia sigue siendo algo diferente. Los mercados de renta variable también se revalorizaron, pero el catalizador sigue siendo la esperanza de estímulos monetarios adicionales en lugar de las señales de recuperación económica. Consecuencias para el posicionamiento de los inversores: sugerimos sobreponderar la renta variable europea (con divisa cubierta para inversores en USD), mientras que en EE.UU. proponemos adoptar un ligero sesgo hacia valores de gran y muy gran capitalización</p>
    <p>WEEKLY INVESTMENT COMMENTARY Russ Koesterich Managing Director and BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, as well as Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was previously Global Head of Investment Strategy for active equities and a senior portfolio manager in the U.S. Market Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2005, he was Chief North American Strategist for State Street Bank. It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information. SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY?® Investors now appear to be treating a December rate hike by the Fed as a sign of economic stability rather than something to be feared. A Rally With a Twist Stocks rallied last week, recouping most of the previous week’s losses. The techheavy Nasdaq Composite Index led the pack, gaining 3.59% to close the week at 5,104, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.35% to 17,823 and the S&P 500 Index climbed 3.26% to 2,089. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped from 2.28% to 2.26%, as its price rose. Last week, investors looked past the tragic attacks in Paris and once again focused on central bank policy. The twist is that investors celebrated the potential for more divergence: tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) while the European Central Bank (ECB) pursues easing. Both trends have implications for investor positioning. We would suggest a continued overweight to hedged European equities while in the U.S. adopting a modest tilt toward large- and mega-cap stocks. Central Bank Clues Move the Markets Investors now appear to be treating a December rate hike by the Fed as a sign of economic stability rather than something to be feared. As such, investors were cheered by the minutes from the October Fed meeting, which were released last week. Consistent with recent statements, it now appears the Fed views the economy as strong enough to justify an initial rate hike, most likely in December. Although manufacturing remains weak — more evidence of which came this week in the form of anemic machine sales from Caterpillar, a six-year low in copper prices and a soft report from the Empire State Manufacturing Index — the broader economy is doing reasonably well while inflation and inflation expectations are stabilizing. With fears over domestic growth waning, investors pushed up stocks and shortterm yields, although commodities and credit mostly sat out the rally. Investors continue to demonstrate an appetite for companies perceived as beneficiaries of secular growth trends, notably technology. Last week, mobile payment maker Square Inc. surged on its first day of trading, counteracting concerns about the IPO price having been marked down from its previous valuation. In Europe, the story remains somewhat different. European equity markets also rallied, with Germany doing particularly well, but the catalyst continues to be hope for more monetary stimulus, rather than signs of economic recovery. Investors got what they were looking for, with several ECB officials confirming the likelihood that the central bank will expand its quantitative easing (QE) program. ECB President Mario Draghi promised “we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible,” a statement that had the predictable effect of driving stocks up while With the euro falling and the ECB likely to expand its monetary stimulus serving as catalysts, we continue to suggest overweighting European equities. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Nov. 23, 2015, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. ©2015 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA. Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee 5696A-MC-1115 / USR–7844 pushing bond yields even deeper into negative territory. The spread between German and U.S. five-year bond yields is now at its widest since the launch of the euro. Another implication is a sinking euro, which traded last week as low as 1.06 vs. the dollar, the weakest level since April. Opportunities: European Equities and U.S. Large Caps With the euro falling and the ECB likely to expand its monetary stimulus serving as catalysts, we continue to suggest overweighting European equities. The one caveat: Given that further gains are partly predicated on a weaker currency, dollarbased investors should continue to consider currency-hedged vehicles. Here at home, we have a modest preference for U.S. large-cap stocks. At first blush, this seems counterintuitive given expectations for a stronger dollar. Generally, a strong dollar is seen as more of a headwind for large caps, which have a greater exposure to international sales. However, this year has demonstrated how the relationship is more complex. Yes, a stronger dollar has proved a headwind for large-cap company earnings, but small caps have actually been underperforming. Part of the reason has to do with why the dollar is appreciating: rising real (after-inflation) interest rates. U.S. real 10-year rates are up roughly 60 basis points (0.60%) since the end of January. This, in turn, is having an impact on small-cap valuations. Through October, S&P 500 Index multiples actually rose a bit. However, the price-to-earnings ratio on the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks contracted by around 2.5%. It should be noted that this is consistent with history. To the extent we see a gradual rise in real rates, it is also likely to keep small-cap valuations under pressure. As such, we favor a modest tilt toward large- and mega-cap names, which also have the advantage of cheaper valuations relative to the broader market.</p>
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