BofAML: Un repaso a la economía global

Redacción - Domingo, 29 de Enero

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Global Economic Weekly: Is free fair? •  As trade tensions build, investors are likely to learn a lot more about the subtle ways countries restrict trade. •  A drop in trade barriers after WWII helped boost trade. In the past decade, non-tariff barriers have reversed some of that. •  As we discuss, we think that negotiating away these barriers will likely prove extremely difficult.

Global Letter: Is free fair?

As trade tensions build, we think investors are likely to learn a lot more about the subtle ways countries restrict trade. A major drop in global tariffs and quotas helped boost global trade after World War II, but in the past decade, non-tariff barriers are reversing some of that boost. Negotiating away these barriers will likely prove extremely difficult.

United States: inflation has a favorite season

Core PCE inflation is impacted by "residual seasonality," resulting in weak monthly growth at the end of the year-explaining the recent soft trend-but strong prints at the start of the new year. We advise focusing on the % yoy trend, as it will smooth through the bias.

Euro Area: when "bad inflation" meets weak pricing power

Oil prices are having a strong impact on input prices which, in the context of still-weak pricing power, is starting to impact margins. Given what we have seen so far, based on PMI data, if the move in January were to persist, we would see a hit to profitability of 1.5ppt of gross value added. This, in turn, would remove 1ppt of growth to capex.

Emerging EMEA: sanctions redemption impact

We think that the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West could end in early 2018. The new US administration has already sent signals that existing sanctions are subject to negotiations on a very broad range of issues.

Latin America: negotiating NAFTA

Mexico and the US are to start negotiations on trade (NAFTA), security and immigration. The US seeks to renegotiate "to give American workers a better deal". Mexico could try to negotiate a strong NAFTA block. We think Mexico may need to convince the US that NAFTA is not the cause of its large trade deficit but part of the solution.

UK: no more QE but Bank of England staying in neutral

We expect a neutral policy bias in next week's Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report, with them likely welcoming the good growth news but also noting risks. We expect the BoE to keep interest rates on hold and to not extend QE.

Australia: down risks to RBA outlook still present

Labour data and CPI have confirmed that the RBA will remain on hold in its February board meeting. Headline inflation is expected to return to the target in Q1 but present headwinds to the core measure. Downwards pressure on prices remains, seeing the RBA maintain its accommodative policy stance.

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