FOMC de octubre, todo sigue su curso

Redacción - Jueves, 20 de Noviembre

• 
• 
• 
• 
• • 
  • 
  • 

Antes, el impacto en los mercados de su publicación. Las bolsas USA finalizaron planas (Dow) o ligeramente a la baja (S&P -0.15 %).
El EUR se mantuvo claramente en niveles de 1.2538 USD, algo más altos que en la jornada europea. La rentabilidad del treasury 10 años en 2.35 %, también marginalmente más alto.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141119a.htm

Si tras leer las Actas le preguntan a varios traders sobre su impresión, estoy convencido de que escucharán lo siguiente:

1.      Más optimismo económico pese al contexto internacional
2.      Algo más preocupados por las perspectivas de inflación a la baja, presionadas por los precios externos
3.      Demasiado enfocados en que la comunicación de las decisiones no sea malinterpretada por los mercados
Y sólo tras preguntar a tres traders. Si la pregunta fuera a cinco de ellos, probablemente tendríamos dos interpretaciones más que serían casi seguro diferentes a las anteriores.
Sí, todo sigue su curso.

Aquí les dejo algunos extractos de la Nota conocida ayer...
Participants anticipated that inflation
would be held down over the near term by the decline in
energy prices and other factors, but would move toward
the Committee's 2 percent goal in coming years, although
a few expressed concern that inflation might persist
below the Committee's objective for quite some
time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. However,
a number of participants noted that economic
growth over the medium term might be slower than they
currently expected if the foreign economic or financial
situation deteriorated significantly.

In discussing economic developments abroad, participants
pointed to a somewhat weaker economic outlook
and increased downside risks in Europe, China, and Japan,
as well as to the strengthening of the dollar over the
period. It was observed that if foreign economic or financial
conditions deteriorated further, U.S. economic
growth over the medium term might be slower than currently
expected. However, many participants saw the effects
of recent developments on the domestic economy
as likely to be quite limited. These participants suggested
variously that the share of external trade in the U.S.
economy is relatively small, that the effects of changes
in the value of the dollar on net exports are modest, that
shifts in the structure of U.S. trade and production over
time may have reduced the effects on U.S. trade of developments
like those seen of late, or that the slowdown
in external demand would likely prove to be less severe than initially feared. Several participants judged that the
decline in the prices of energy and other commodities as
well as lower long-term interest rates would likely provide
an offset to the higher dollar and weaker foreign
growth, or that the domestic recovery remained on a
firm footing.
In their discussion of communications regarding the
path of the federal funds rate over the medium term,
meeting participants agreed that the timing of the first
increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate
path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming
economic data and their implications for the
outlook. Most participants judged that it would be helpful
to include new language in the Committee's forward
guidance to clarify how the Committee's decision about
when to begin the policy normalization process will depend
on incoming information about the economy.
Some participants preferred to eliminate language in the
statement indicating that the current target range for the
federal funds rate would likely be maintained for a "considerable
time" after the end of the asset purchase program.
These participants were concerned that such a
characterization could be misinterpreted as suggesting
that the Committee's decisions would not depend on the
incoming data. However, other participants thought
that the "considerable time" phrase was useful in communicating the Committee's policy intentions or that additional
wording could be used to emphasize the data dependence
of the Committee's decision process. A
couple of them noted that the removal of the "considerable
time" phrase might be seen as signaling a significant
shift in the stance of policy, potentially resulting in an
unintended tightening of financial conditions. A couple
of others thought that the current forward guidance
might be read as suggesting an earlier date of liftoff than
was likely to prove appropriate, given the outlook for inflation
and the downside risks to the economy associated
with the effective lower bound on interest rates. With
regard to the pace of interest rate increases after the start
of policy normalization, a number of participants
thought that it could soon be helpful to clarify the Committee's
likely approach. It was noted that communication
about post-liftoff policy would pose challenges
given the inherent uncertainty of the economic and financial
outlook and the Committee's desire to retain
flexibility to adjust policy in response to the incoming
data. Most participants supported retaining the language
in the statement indicating that the Committee anticipates
that economic conditions may warrant keeping the
target range for the federal funds rate below longer-run
normal levels even after employment and inflation are
near mandate-consistent levels. However, a couple of
participants thought that the language should be
amended in light of the prescriptions suggested by many
monetary policy rules and the risks associated with keeping
interest rates below their longer-run values for an extended
period of time.

La posición de estos últimos sigue sin traducirse en decisiones concretas. Por el momento.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

[Volver]