¿Quién teme a la deuda corporativa americana?

avid Page, Greg Venizelos y Varun Ghotgalkar, AXA IM - Martes, 12 de Junio

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Who’s afraid of US corporate debt?  Pockets of weakness rather than broad fragility characterise the sector §  The level of total business debt has fallen as a proportion of GDP since the global financial crisis reflecting the deleveraging of financial companies. §  On aggregate, US non-financial corporate indebtedness has risen as a proportion of GDP, but remains subdued as a proportion of business income (net operating surplus) and has fallen as a proportion of profits.

§  Moreover, with interest rates low, interest payments as a proportion of business incomes are still at decade-low levels.

§  However, favourable conditions have encouraged many companies to adjust their capital structure which has seen borrowing from corporate debt markets increase 130% since the financial crisis.

§  This has included a large increase in BBB-rated (and single A) issuance, leading to a modest deterioration in overall credit index quality.

§  In the main, low interest rates make these debt structures affordable. And in stress-test scenarios, only in the most extreme cases do we envisage a deterioration in interest-cover ratios.

§  Moreover, we expect recent developments (rising interest rates and Tax Reform changes) to result in a contraction of non-financial corporate debt growth over the coming years.

§  We identify pockets of weakness in credit markets, where leverage is high and interest-cover ratios are low.

§  Legitimate concerns over contagion risk are somewhat assuaged by relatively high corporate liquidity and the borrowing disintermediation over the past decade. 

 

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